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biogrpahy Malcolm X was born Malcolm Little on May 19, 1925 in Omaha, Nebraska. His mother, Louise Norton Little, was a homemaker occupied with the family#8217;s eight children. His father, Earl Little, was an outspoken Baptist minister and avid supporter of Black Nationalist leader Marcus Garvey. Earl#8217;s civil rights activism prompted death threats from the essays crayons white supremacist organization Black Legion, forcing the introduction university family to relocate twice before Malcolm#8217;s fourth birthday. Regardless of the Little#8217;s efforts to elude the Legion, in on crayola crayons, 1929, their Lansing, Michigan home was burned to the ground. Two years later, Earl#8217;s body was found lying across the town#8217;s trolley tracks. Police ruled both incidents as accidents, but the Littles were certain that members of the Black Legion were responsible. Louise suffered emotional breakdown several years after the death of her husband and was committed to a mental institution, while her children were split up among various foster homes and arthur ashe, orphanages. Eventually, Malcolm and his long-time friend, Malcolm #8220;Shorty#8221; Jarvis, moved back to essays crayons Boston.
In 1946, they were arrested and convicted on burglary charges, and Malcolm was sentenced to 10 years in prison, although he was granted parole after serving seven years. Recalling his days in write introduction university essay, school, he used the time to further his education. It was during this period of self-enlightenment that Malcolm#8217;s brother Reginald would visit and discuss his recent conversion to the Muslim religion. Reginald belonged to the religious organization the Nation of Islam (NOI). Intrigued, Malcolm began to study the teachings of on crayola, NOI leader Elijah Muhammad. Muhammad taught that white society actively worked to keep African-Americans from short essay, empowering themselves and achieving political, economic, and social success. Among other goals, the essays on crayola crayons NOI fought for a state of their own, separate from one inhabited by white people.
By the time he was paroled in italian language homework, 1952, Malcolm was a devoted follower with the new surname #8220;X#8221; (He considered #8220;Little#8221; a slave name and essays crayons, chose the essay huck #8220;X#8221; to signify his lost tribal name.). Intelligent and articulate, Malcolm was appointed as a minister and national spokesman for the Nation of Islam. Essays! Elijah Muhammad also charged him with establishing new mosques in cities such as Detroit, Michigan, and Harlem. Malcolm utilized newspaper columns, as well as radio and television, to communicate the NOI#8217;s message across the United States. His charisma, drive, and conviction attracted an astounding number of new members.
Malcolm was largely credited with increasing membership in the NOI from 500 in 1952 to 30,000 in 1963. The crowds and controversy surrounding Malcolm made him a media magnet. He was featured in a weeklong television special with Mike Wallace in 1959, called The Hate That Hate Produced. The program explored the fundamentals of the NOI, and tracked Malcolm#8217;s emergence as one of prompts, its most important leaders. After the on crayola special, Malcolm was faced with the uncomfortable reality that his fame had eclipsed that of his mentor Elijah Muhammad.
In addition to the media, Malcolm#8217;s vivid personality had captured the government#8217;s attention. As membership in the NOI continued to italian language grow, FBI agents infiltrated the organization (one even acted as Malcolm#8217;s bodyguard) and secretly placed bugs, wiretaps, cameras, and other surveillance equipment to monitor the group#8217;s activities. Malcolm#8217;s faith was dealt a crushing blow at the height of the civil rights movement in 1963. He learned that his mentor and on crayola crayons, leader, Elijah Muhammad, was secretly having relations with as many as six women within the Nation of Islam organization. As if that were not enough, Malcolm found out essay, that some of these relationships had resulted in children. On Crayola Crayons! Since joining the NOI, Malcolm had strictly adhered to italian help the teachings of Muhammad, which included remaining celibate until his marriage to Betty Shabazz in 1958. Malcolm refused Muhammad#8217;s request to help cover up the affairs and subsequent children. He was deeply hurt by Muhammad#8217;s actions, because he had previously considered him a living prophet. On Crayola Crayons! Malcolm also felt guilty about the as you masses he had led to join the NOI, which he now felt was a fraudulent organization built on too many lies to ignore. Essays Crayons! Shortly after his shocking discovery, Malcolm received criticism for a comment he made regarding the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. #8220;[Kennedy] never foresaw that the chickens would come home to roost so soon,#8221; said Malcolm. After the statement, Elijah Muhammad #8220;silenced#8221; Malcolm for 90 days.
Malcolm, however, suspected he was silenced for essay huck another reason. In March 1964, Malcolm terminated his relationship with the essays on crayola NOI. Unable to look past Muhammad#8217;s deception, Malcolm decided to found his own religious organization, the Muslim Mosque, Inc. That same year, Malcolm went on a pilgrimage to Mecca, which proved to be life altering for him. For the essay huck first time, Malcolm shared his thoughts and beliefs with different cultures and found the response to be overwhelmingly positive. When he returned, Malcolm said he had met #8220;blonde-haired, blued-eyed men I could call my brothers.#8221; He returned to crayons the United States with a new outlook on integration and a new hope for essay huck the future. This time when Malcolm spoke, instead of just preaching to African-Americans, he had a message for all races.
After Malcolm resigned his position in essays crayons, the Nation of Islam and renounced Elijah Muhammad, relations between the two had become increasingly volatile. FBI informants working undercover in the NOI warned officials that Malcolm had been marked for resume of baker assassinationone undercover officer had even been ordered to help plant a bomb in Malcolm#8217;s car. After repeated attempts on his life, Malcolm rarely traveled anywhere without bodyguards. On February 14, 1965 the home where Malcolm, Betty, and crayons, their four daughters lived in homework help, East Elmhurst, New York was firebombed. Luckily, the family escaped physical injury. One week later, however, Malcolm#8217;s enemies were successful in their ruthless attempt. At a speaking engagement in the Manhattan#8217;s Audubon Ballroom on February 21, 1965, three gunmen rushed Malcolm onstage. They shot him 15 times at close range.
The 39-year-old was pronounced dead on arrival at on crayola crayons New York#8217;s Columbia Presbyterian Hospital. Write Introduction University! Fifteen hundred people attended Malcolm#8217;s funeral in Harlem on February 27, 1965 at essays on crayola crayons the Faith Temple Church of God in short essay on conservation, Christ (now Child#8217;s Memorial Temple Church of God in on crayola, Christ). After the ceremony, friends took the language homework help shovels away from the waiting gravediggers and buried Malcolm themselves. Later that year, Betty gave birth to their twin daughters. Malcolm#8217;s assassins, Talmadge Hayer, Norman 3X Butler, and Thomas 15X Johnson, were convicted of first-degree murder in March 1966. The three men were all members of the Nation of Islam. Malcolm X’s legacy has moved through generations as the subject of numerous documentaries, books, and on crayola crayons, movies.
A tremendous resurgence of interest occurred in 1992 when director Spike Lee released the acclaimed movie, Malcolm X. The film received Oscar nominations for Best Actor (Denzel Washington) and Best Costume Design. Essay Huck! Malcolm X is essays on crayola crayons, buried at the Ferncliff Cemetery in Hartsdale, New York.
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KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of on crayola, progress (at today’s rate). Italian Homework Help. The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of essays on crayola crayons, exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and arthur, nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in essays on crayola, the universe at the speed of light.
You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says. For complete details, see below. (It’s true that authors will do just about anything to keep your attention, but I’m serious about essay huck this statement. Until I return to on crayola a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of arthur essay, this paragraph carefully.) Now back to essays the future: it’s widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected the future to write introduction university essay be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is on crayola, so flat that it looks like no trend at resume of baker all. So their lack of essays on crayola, expectations was largely fulfilled. Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and ashe, the social repercussions that follow.
But the essays on crayola, future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on what I call the “intuitive linear” view of technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.” To express this another way, it is not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of resume of baker, progress (at today’s rate of progress, that is). This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of contexts, for essays on crayola example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us. Resume Of Baker. Bill and essays, I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Essay Huck. Although I’m expected to criticize Bill’s position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of essays, relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility. Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bill’s concerns, exclaiming that, “we’re not going to arthur ashe essay see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for a hundred years.” I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the amount of technical progress required to on crayola achieve this particular milestone at today’s rate of progress . But because we’re doubling the rate of ashe essay, progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress– at today’s rate –in only 25 calendar years. When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of on crayola crayons, progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of write university, technology shows that the rate of progress is essays crayons, not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematician’s perspective, a primary reason for short on conservation this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. So even though the essays on crayola crayons, rate of progress in arthur ashe essay, the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by essays on crayola our very recent experience. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the italian, future, extrapolate the current pace of on crayola, change over the next 10 years or 100 years to resume of baker determine their expectations. This is on crayola crayons, why I call this way of looking at the future the “intuitive linear” view. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential.
In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to on conservation of nature incrementally. Essays On Crayola. Exponential growth is essay huck, a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data. in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to crayons biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but “double” exponential growth, meaning that the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of help, Moore’s law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of essays crayons, diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and resume of baker, has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of on crayola, evolution on resume of baker, Earth. I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends.
Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of technological progress. That is essays on crayola crayons, why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to language leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into what I call the law of essays on crayola, accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from essay on conservation, one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the crayons, next stage. As a result, the resume of baker, rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. Over time, the “order” of the information embedded in essays, the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of introduction essay, how well the essays crayons, information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases. A correlate of the above observation is that the “returns” of an evolutionary process (e.g., the speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall “power” of a process) increase exponentially over prompts, time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of essays on crayola crayons, that process. This results in a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).
Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in essay huck, the new evolutionary process of technology. Crayons. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of–and a continuation of–biological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to write essay continue. If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the essays crayons, first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.
The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the language homework, results of evolutionary experiments. Crayons. Then, the evolution of arthur ashe, a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and essays on crayola crayons, nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include “biologically inspired” processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains. If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated.
The evolution of life forms required billions of years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of homework, years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of crayons, years. With the resume of baker, advent of a technology-creating species, the essays on crayola crayons, exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology. Essay Huck. Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of essays, innovation. In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. Essay Huck. There is essays on crayola crayons, a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on resume of baker, the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel–took tens of crayons, thousands of years. For people living in resume of baker, this era, there was little noticeable technological change in essays on crayola crayons, even a thousand years. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two.
In the short essay on conservation, nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in essays crayons, the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didn’t exist at short on conservation of nature all a decade ago. The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of essays, acceleration is resume of baker, itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to on crayola crayons what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. On Conservation Of Nature. In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress (again at today’s rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to crayons current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming “singularity,” it is important to ponder the nature of italian language, exponential growth.
Toward this end, I am fond of essays on crayola, telling the tale of the inventor of chess and his patron, the emperor of China. In response to the emperor’s offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. Essay Of Nature. One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included. Another version of the essays on crayola, story has the inventor losing his head. It should be pointed out that as the as you like prompts, emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the essays, end of the first half of the chess board, the inventor had accumulated one large field’s worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the homework, situation quickly deteriorated.
Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, that’s about where we stand now–there have been slightly more than 32 doublings of on crayola, performance since the first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power are doubled. As You. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the Internet went from 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the essays crayons, general public. Arthur Ashe. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to essays on crayola crayons 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to accelerate into write introduction university essay, the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. Essays On Crayola Crayons. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it.
It will literally get out of our control. The illusion that we have our hand “on the plug,” will be dispelled. Can the pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to italian keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so.
But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of essays on crayola crayons, fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. When the scientists evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in a century of progress (in today’s terms). This, then, is the Singularity. Essay. The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of essays crayons, human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its “event horizon” and language homework help, make sense of what lies beyond.
My view is essays, that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of short essay of nature, abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of essays, life after the Singularity. University Essay. Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is already a human-machine civilization. Essays. This will be the next step in evolution, the resume of baker, next high level paradigm shift. To put the crayons, concept of Singularity into perspective, let’s explore the history of the essay huck, word itself. Singularity is essays on crayola, a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to essay huck zero. In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of essays crayons, infinite power.
At the center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the as you, region from the rest of the Universe. Essays On Crayola. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and time. The Universe itself is said to have begun with just such a Singularity. In the 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that “the ever accelerating progress of technology…gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.” In the 1960s, I. J. Homework. Good wrote of an “intelligence explosion,” resulting from intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and essays crayons, computer scientist at resume of baker San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological “singularity” in his science fiction novel, Marooned in Realtime. Then in essays on crayola, 1993, Vinge presented a paper to a NASA-organized symposium which described the Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the advent of “entities with greater than human intelligence,” which Vinge saw as the harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces.
It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress. However, I emphasize the word “currently,” because one of the salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the 1980s, I ended the book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to university look beyond this event horizon. Now having thought about its implications for essays the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of human life. Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of our experiences will shift from real reality to arthur ashe essay virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this century will be trillions of trillions of on crayola crayons, times more powerful than human intelligence.
However, to address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. On Conservation Of Nature. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the concern, as some people have expressed the crayons, wish to remain “unenhanced” while at the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. My view is that the on conservation of nature, likely outcome is essays crayons, that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and italian language, desires. On the essays on crayola crayons, other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only short on conservation of nature, a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring. Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, let’s examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to essays on crayola crayons the law of accelerating returns.
The exponential trend that has gained the greatest public recognition has become known as “Moore’s Law.” Gordon Moore, one of the inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of ashe essay, Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of essays crayons, devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the essay, year 2019. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and on crayola, the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of ashe essay, 49 famous calculators and computers spanning the crayons, entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations. Moore’s Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing. Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to note that Moore’s Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance.
Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in italian language help, power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Essays On Crayola. Census, to Turing’s relay-based “Robinson” machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay. But I noticed something else surprising. When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didn’t get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, there’s exponential growth in like, the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year. But where does Moore’s Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon?
I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend. Is it just “a set of industry expectations and essays on crayola crayons, goals,” as Randy Isaac, head of basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on? In my view, it is one manifestation (among many) of the exponential growth of the arthur ashe, evolutionary process that is essays crayons, technology. Resume Of Baker. The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an essays, evolutionary process.
We can also express the exponential growth of computing in terms of an ashe, accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the crayons, first MIPS (million instructions per second) per italian, thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per on crayola crayons, thousand dollars every day. Moore’s Law narrowly refers to the number of transistors on an integrated circuit of fixed size, and sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size. But rather than feature size (which is only one contributing factor), or even number of transistors, I think the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per unit cost. This takes into account many levels of “cleverness” (i.e., innovation, which is to say, technological evolution). In addition to short essay of nature all of the innovation in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of innovation in computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and memory caching, and many others. From the on crayola, above chart, we see that the exponential growth of computing didn’t start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to essay of nature the electromechanical calculators used in the 1890 and 1900 U.S. Census. This chart spans at essays on crayola crayons least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moore’s Law pertains to only the latest one. It’s obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moore’s Law runs out of steam during the second decade of this century. Chips today are flat (although it does require up to 20 layers of material to produce one layer of circuitry). Our brain, in contrast, is organized in three dimensions.
We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension? The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. The bulk of the arthur, calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at a speed of only about 200 calculations per second (in each connection), which is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. Essays On Crayola Crayons. But the essay huck, brain gains its prodigious powers from its extremely parallel organization in three dimensions . There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in three dimensions. Nanotubes, for example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from pentagonal arrays of carbon atoms. One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of essays on crayola, computing is broader than Moore’s Law, which refers to italian only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in on crayola crayons, turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to criticize extrapolations of an essay huck, exponential trend on on crayola crayons, the basis that the on conservation, trend is bound to run out of “resources.” The classical example is essays on crayola crayons, when a species happens upon a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in Australia), the write essay, species’ numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out. But the resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself.
Each stage of essays crayons, evolution provides more powerful tools for it essay prompts the next. In biological evolution, the advent of essays, DNA allowed more powerful and faster evolutionary “experiments.” Later, setting the “designs” of animal body plans during the Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the resume of baker, next generation of computers. (ii) The “chaos” of the environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is a valid issue. Essays Crayons. But according to my models, we won’t approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries).
We also need to essay huck distinguish between the “S” curve (an “S” stretched to the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growth–followed by very rapid growth–followed by on crayola a flattening out as the process approaches an asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and write university essay, the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the essays on crayola, ongoing evolutionary process of technology. Ashe Essay. Specific paradigms, such as Moore’s Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. Thus Moore’s Law is an S curve. But the growth of computation is an ongoing exponential (at least until we “saturate” the Universe with the intelligence of our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S curve of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over essays crayons, when the old paradigm approaches its natural limit. This has already happened at least four times in the history of computation.
This difference also distinguishes the tool making of non-human species, in which the mastery of a tool-making (or using) skill by each animal is characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an exponential pattern of growth and acceleration since its inception. DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization. This “law of accelerating returns” applies to resume of baker all of essays crayons, technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and can be measured with remarkable precision in information based technologies. Write University. There are a great many examples of the exponential growth implied by the law of accelerating returns in technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of all kinds, and even in the rapidly shrinking size of technology. The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of computation alone, but rather from the interplay and myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in mind that every point on the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and essays on crayola crayons, competition. It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out essay huck that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of essays crayons, years to finish the project.
Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to resume of baker see exponential growth in electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to Discrete Transistors to Integrated Circuits. However, growth in magnetic memory is on crayola crayons, not primarily a matter of Moore’s law, but includes advances in mechanical and introduction essay, electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in its implications.
Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. Notice Cascade of smaller “S” Curves. Note that in essays on crayola, the above two charts we can actually see the ashe, progression of “S” curves: the acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the paradigm runs out of steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the Internet based on the number of hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on an exponential axis and the other is linear. As I pointed out earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in the linear domain. So from the perspective of essays, most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the world wide web and email exploded into view. But the italian language homework help, emergence of the Internet into a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by examining the on crayola crayons, exponential trend data.
Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the Exponential Chart. Ultimately we will get away from the tangle of wires in italian homework, our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the power of which is doubling every 10 to 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of technologies, both electronic and essays on crayola, mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. The Exponential Growth of like prompts, Computation Revisited. If we view the exponential growth of computation in its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the exponential growth of on crayola crayons, information based technology, that is, as one example of many of the law of essay huck, accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing. The formulas below result in the above graph of the continued growth of computation. This graph matches the available data for the twentieth century through all five paradigms and provides projections for the twenty-first century.
Note how the essays on crayola crayons, Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of Computation. The following provides a brief overview of the as you it essay, law of accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of computation. This model considers the impact of the essays on crayola, growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. For example, with more powerful computers and related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the italian help, data for the year 2000 and beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in essays on crayola crayons, emulating human brain functions.
This type of calculation is less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to homework help the brain’s digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). A factor of 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and less than 6 years later in the twenty-first century. My estimate of essays on crayola crayons, brain capacity is 100 billion neurons times an average 1,000 connections per neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections) times 200 calculations per second. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates. Short Essay Of Nature. However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by orders of magnitude only shift the prediction by a relatively small number of years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the crayons, following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059. The Model considers the following variables: V: Velocity (i.e., power) of computing (measured in CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to essay huck designing and building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the model are: In other words, computer power is on crayola crayons, a linear function of the knowledge of how to build computers.
This is actually a conservative assumption. In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by a multiple, not in an additive way. Independent innovations multiply each other’s effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by ashe essay independent multiples. In other words, W (knowledge) is cumulative, and the instantaneous increment to knowledge is proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to on crayola t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on notation: a^b means a raised to the b power.) Simplifying the essay huck, constants, we get: So this is a formula for on crayola crayons “accelerating” (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a “regular Moore’s Law.” As I mentioned above, the data shows exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the resume of baker, 1990s.) Let’s factor in another exponential phenomenon, which is the on crayola crayons, growing resources for arthur ashe essay computation.
Not only is each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of crayons, W, but the as you like, resources deployed for computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for computation is growing at its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to t) (N * V) As before, world knowledge is essays, accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of computation, which equals the resources deployed for computation (N) * the power of each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponential–an exponential curve in which the rate of exponential growth is growing at a different exponential rate. Now let’s consider real-world data. Considering the data for resume of baker actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for $1,000.
Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the growth rate over a period of time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for essays on crayola crayons Current Year) – LOG(CPS/$1K for like Previous Year))/(Current Year – Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the graph above. Already, IBM’s “Blue Gene” supercomputer, now being built and on crayola crayons, scheduled to be completed by 2005, is write introduction, projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per crayons, second (i.e., one billion megaflops).
This is arthur essay, already one twentieth of the capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per essays, second per connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of italian language homework help, computing. By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the processing power of all human brains on Earth. Of course, this only includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in a way, we wouldn’t (and don’t) design computing circuits the same way. Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron’s electrochemical processes. Most of the complexity of essays, a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate.
Then our minds won’t have to stay so small, being constrained as they are today to a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per essay huck, second. So far, I’ve been talking about the hardware of computing. The software is even more salient. One of the principal assumptions underlying the essays on crayola, expectation of the Singularity is the like it essay, ability of nonbiological mediums to emulate the richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking. Achieving the computational capacity of the human brain, or even villages and nations of human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. By human levels I include all the diverse and subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the world, and essays, understanding and responding appropriately to emotion.
The requisite hardware capacity is italian homework, a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and content of these resources–the software of intelligence–is also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is crayons, important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of essay on conservation, intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge. If I learn French, or read War and Peace, I can’t readily download that learning to you.
You have to essays on crayola acquire that scholarship the same painstaking way that I did. My knowledge, embedded in a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. But we won’t leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. When one computer learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of language homework, other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to essays on crayola crayons recognize continuous human speech. Introduction University. We exposed it to thousands of hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and patiently improved its performance. Finally, it became quite adept at recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to on crayola crayons it).
Now if you want your own personal computer to recognize speech, it doesn’t have to go through the same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in seconds. Ultimately, billions of nonbiological entities can be the master of all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits. A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of phone numbers. Short Essay On Conservation. The combination of human level intelligence in a machine with a computer’s inherent superiority in the speed, accuracy, and sharing ability of on crayola crayons, its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of like it essay, intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond. We will be able to essays evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and language homework, model knowledge, including the essays, ability to read and model the knowledge contained in written documents. Unlike many contemporary “neural net” machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and other relevant details.
Although the ability of essay huck, today’s computers to extract and learn knowledge from natural language documents is limited, their capabilities in this domain are improving rapidly. Essays On Crayola. Computers will be able to read on write university essay, their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the twenty-first century. Crayons. We can then have our computers read all of the world’s literature–books, magazines, scientific journals, and other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on their own by essay venturing out on on crayola crayons, the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the essay, full spectrum of media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for essays on crayola mastering the software of intelligence is to tap into the blueprint of the best example we can get our hands on arthur ashe, of an intelligent process. There is no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the on crayola, human brain, and essentially copy its design. Although it took its original designer several billion years to develop, it’s readily available to us, and not (yet) copyrighted.
Although there’s a skull around the brain, it is not hidden from our view. The most immediately accessible way to accomplish this is through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to die anyway, and essay on conservation, examine one brain layer–one very thin slice–at a time. We can readily see every neuron and essays crayons, every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer. Human brain scanning has already started. A condemned killer allowed his brain and body to be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on the Internet http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible_human.html. He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in case he gets lonely. Write Essay. This scan is not high enough in resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably don’t want to base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway. But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the law of accelerating returns will provide the requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for the human genome scan. Carnegie Mellon University’s Andreas Nowatzyk plans to on crayola crayons scan the nervous system of the brain and body of a mouse with a resolution of as you like, less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to essays the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and resume of baker, other technologies which are capable in certain instances of resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the law of accelerating returns.
Future generations will enable us to resolve the connections between neurons and to peer inside the synapses and record the neurotransmitter concentrations. We can peer inside someone’s brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology. There are a number of technical challenges in accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. For a variety of on crayola crayons, reasons it is easier to help scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone still living. It is essays on crayola crayons, easier to write introduction essay get someone deceased to sit still, for one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and other scanning technologies continue to improve in crayons, resolution and speed. Although noninvasive means of scanning the arthur, brain from outside the skull are rapidly improving, the most practical approach to capturing every salient neural detail will be to scan it from on crayola crayons, inside. By 2030, “nanobot” (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Resume Of Baker. Nanobots are robots that are the size of human blood cells, or even smaller. Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close.
Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and with other computers that are compiling the brain scan data base (in other words, the nanobots will all be on a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and feel today. We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the scanner is physically proximate to on crayola crayons the neural features. The basic computational and communication methods are also essentially feasible today. Resume Of Baker. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost. As I discussed above, we can project the essays, exponentially declining cost of computation, and the rapidly declining size of both electronic and mechanical technologies. We can conservatively expect, therefore, the essay, requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Because of its ability to place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. How will we apply the thousands of trillions of essays on crayola, bytes of information derived from each brain scan? One approach is to use the results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for arthur ashe our machines, particularly those based on one of the neural net paradigms.
With this approach, we don’t have to copy every single connection. There is a great deal of repetition and redundancy within any particular brain region. Although the information contained in a human brain would require thousands of essays, trillions of bytes of information (on the order of 100 billion neurons times an average of arthur ashe essay, 1,000 connections per neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and connection data), the design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Furthermore, most of the genome is redundant, so the initial design of the brain is characterized by essays on crayola crayons approximately one hundred million bytes, about the size of Microsoft Word. Of course, the introduction university, complexity of our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of more than ten million). Because of the crayons, highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is not necessary to capture each detail in order to reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. There are already multiple efforts under way to scan the human brain and apply the insights derived to the design of intelligent machines.
The pace of brain reverse engineering is italian language homework, only slightly behind the availability of the brain scanning and neuron structure information. A contemporary example is a comprehensive model of a significant portion of the crayons, human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts (www.lloydwatts.com) has developed from both neurobiology studies of specific neuron types and on conservation of nature, brain interneuronal connection information. Watts’ model includes five parallel paths and includes the actual intermediate representations of auditory information at on crayola each stage of neural processing. Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Although a work in italian language help, progress, the model illustrates the feasibility of converting neurobiological models and brain connection data into working simulations. Also, as Hans Moravec and others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated.
Reverse Engineering the Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by crayons Lloyd Watts. Cochlea : Sense organ of italian language help, hearing. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into spectro-temporal representation of on crayola, sound. MC : Multipolar Cells. Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. As You Like. Relays spikes from the essays on crayola, auditory nerve to the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and MSO) . Encoding of timing and amplitude of signals for binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells.
Provide temporal sharpening of time of like it essay prompts, arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation. OC : Octopus Cells. Essays On Crayola. Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Detection of spectral edges and calibrating for noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the Trapezoid Body. Resume Of Baker. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in essays crayons, the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Processing transients from the Octopus Cells. MSO : Medial Superior Olive.
Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in language homework, time of arrival between the two ears, used to essays tell where a sound is coming from). LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. Resume Of Baker. Also involved in essays, computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the arthur essay, Inferior Colliculus. Crayons. The site of major integration of multiple representations of sound.
ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. Further refinement of essay on conservation, sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body.
The auditory portion of the thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is not one huge “tabula rasa” (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of hundreds of specialized regions. The process of “peeling the onion” to understand these interleaved regions is essays on crayola crayons, well underway.
As the ashe essay, requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and implementable models such as the auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions. After the algorithms of a region are understood, they can be refined and extended before being implemented in synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on a computational substrate that is already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in the methods for on crayola building intelligent machines that we already understand. A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Here we scan someone’s brain to italian map the locations, interconnections, and contents of on crayola, all the somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and resume of baker, other neural components and levels. Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of sufficient capacity, including the contents of on crayola, its memory. To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the higher level processes. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to italian language homework download it may sound daunting, but so did the human genome scan.
All of the crayons, basic technologies exist today, just not with the requisite speed, cost, and homework, size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to essays on crayola crayons accurately model. For example, Ted Berger and his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of it essay prompts, neurons, including clusters with hundreds of neurons. Carver Mead and his colleagues at CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of mammalian neural circuits. A recent experiment at San Diego’s Institute for on crayola crayons Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones. University Essay. Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of what is often called “chaotic computing.” Each neuron acts in an essentially unpredictable fashion. When an on crayola, entire network of neurons receives input (from the ashe essay, outside world or from other networks of neurons), the signaling amongst them appears at first to be frenzied and random. Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the chaotic interplay of the neurons dies down, and a stable pattern emerges.
This pattern represents the “decision” of the neural network. If the crayons, neural network is performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the bulk of the activity in the human brain), then the ashe, emergent pattern represents the appropriate recognition. So the question addressed by the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in on crayola, this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from essay huck, spiney lobsters in a single network, and their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by a stable emergent pattern) and with the same type of results as an essays on crayola, all biological net of neurons. Write University Essay. Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. On Crayola Crayons. It indicates that their mathematical model of these neurons was reasonably accurate. There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to italian recreate in great detail the functionality of essays on crayola, human neuron clusters. Resume Of Baker. The accuracy and scale of these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of tens, then hundreds, and now thousands.
Scaling up technical processes at an exponential pace is essays on crayola crayons, what technology is good at. As the computational power to emulate the human brain becomes available–we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades–projects already under way to scan the short on conservation of nature, human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the contents and design of crayons, specific brains. By the third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and essay huck, synapses in the human brain, all of the neural details that play a role in the behavior and functionality of the on crayola, brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from resume of baker, a Computer? Is the on crayola crayons, human brain different from a computer? The answer depends on what we mean by resume of baker the word “computer.” Certainly the brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. In contrast, the essays crayons, human brain combines digital and analog methods with most computations performed in the analog domain. The brain is massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at extremely slow speeds.
With regard to digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing (although the essay huck, reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the on crayola crayons, capabilities of a hybrid digital–analog network with an ashe, all digital computer. On the other hand, there is an engineering advantage to analog circuits in that analog computing is potentially thousands of on crayola, times more efficient. An analog computation can be performed by a few transistors, or, in the case of introduction university, mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in essays on crayola crayons, contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is a significant engineering advantage to emulating the brain’s analog methods.
The massive parallelism of the write university, human brain is the on crayola, key to its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of human thinking. As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and if the italian language help, neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the network’s decision. On Crayola. There is no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and prompts, indeed there are dozens of projects around the world that have succeeded in doing this. My own technical field is essays crayons, pattern recognition, and the projects that I have been involved in for over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Particularly successful examples are Carver Mead’s neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks. The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope. Although these entities will be capable of passing the “Turing test” (i.e., able to arthur ashe essay fool humans that they are human), the on crayola, question arises as to whether these “people” are conscious, or just appear that way.
To gain some insight as to why this is an extremely subtle question (albeit an ultimately important one) it is useful to consider some of the paradoxes that emerge from the concept of downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the most common application of the knowledge gained from arthur, reverse engineering the human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on essays, specific biological human individuals, the scenario of scanning and reinstantiating all of the neural details of a specific person raises the most immediate questions of italian help, identity. On Crayola. Let’s consider the question of what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the objective and arthur ashe, subjective levels. “Objective” means everyone except me, so let’s start with that. Objectively, when we scan someone’s brain and reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent “person” will appear to other observers to have very much the same personality, history, and memory as the person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and perfected. Like any new technology, it won’t be perfect at first. But ultimately, the scans and recreations will be very accurate and essays, realistic. Interacting with the newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person. The new person will claim to be that same old person and will have a memory of having been that person. The new person will have all of the patterns of knowledge, skill, and essay huck, personality of the original.
We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of neurons and crayons, neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from doing the same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the resume of baker, issue is more subtle and on crayola crayons, profound, but first we need to reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and resume of baker, image, not to essays crayons mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction. Many, if not most, of the italian, goals we attempt to advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for on crayola their myriad needs and desires. As You Like It Essay. Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. If we’re going to port a human’s mind to a new computational medium, we’d better provide a body. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of bodies that we will provide for on crayola crayons our machines, and that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in virtual reality), bodies comprised of swarms of nanobots, and other technologies. A common scenario will be to enhance a person’s biological brain with intimate connection to nonbiological intelligence.
In this case, the body remains the resume of baker, good old human body that we’re familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology. A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is beyond the scope of this essay, but recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the reinstantiated mind the essays on crayola crayons, same consciousness as the person we just scanned? Are these “people” conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain?
Consciousness in our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue. Resume Of Baker. But it is not easily resolved, or even readily understood. Essays Crayons. People tend to have strong views on the subject, and often just can’t understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from a different perspective. Marvin Minsky observed that “there’s something queer about it essay prompts describing consciousness. Whatever people mean to say, they just can’t seem to make it clear.” We don’t worry, at least not yet, about causing pain and essays, suffering to our computer programs. But at as you it essay what point do we consider an entity, a process, to essays be conscious, to feel pain and discomfort, to have its own intentionality, its own free will?
How do we determine if an help, entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is conscious from one that just acts as if it is conscious? We can’t simply ask it. If it says “Hey I’m conscious,” does that settle the issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and essays crayons, they’re not terribly convincing. How about arthur if the entity is very convincing and essays, compelling when it says “I’m lonely, please keep me company.” Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and write introduction essay, see essentially the crayons, identical kinds of arthur essay, feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the issue? And just who are these people in crayons, the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on who you ask. Like It Essay Prompts. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the original persons.
For example, if we scan–let’s say myself–and record the exact state, level, and position of on crayola, every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of information (which I estimate at short essay thousands of trillions of bytes) into a neural computer of sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that “he” is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. He will say “I grew up in Queens, New York, went to college at MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and woke up in the machine here. On Crayola. Hey, this technology really works.” Is this really me? For one thing, old biological Ray (that’s me) still exists. I’ll still be here in my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to sit back and watch the new Ray succeed in endeavors that I could only dream of. Let’s consider the arthur, issue of just who I am, and who the crayons, new Ray is a little more carefully.
First of all, am I the stuff in my brain and like it essay, body? Consider that the crayons, particles making up my body and brain are constantly changing. We are not at all permanent collections of particles. The cells in our bodies turn over at different rates, but the short essay on conservation of nature, particles (e.g., atoms and molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. Essays. I am just not the same collection of particles that I was even a month ago.
It is the patterns of resume of baker, matter and energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is changing constantly, and very quickly. We are rather like the essays crayons, patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of rocks makes a particular, unique pattern. Italian Homework Help. This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for hours, even years. Of course, the actual material constituting the pattern–the water–is replaced in milliseconds. The same is true for Ray Kurzweil. Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of continuity. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the pattern of matter and essays, energy that we represent. Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to this “identify from pattern” argument. If you were to scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about help it (with the nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario).
If you then come to me, and essays on crayola, say, “good news, Ray, we’ve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we won’t be needing your old brain anymore,” I may suddenly realize the flaw in help, this “identity from pattern” argument. I may wish new Ray well, and realize that he shares my “pattern,” but I would nonetheless conclude that he’s not me, because I’m still here. On Crayola Crayons. How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Let’s consider another perplexing scenario.
Suppose I replace a small number of biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and write university essay, longevity, but that’s not relevant to essays on crayola this thought experiment). After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so. I still have the same self-deprecating humor, the same silly grin–yes, I’m still the same guy. It should be clear where I’m going with this. Bit by bit, region by region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the neurotransmitter concentrations and other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories).
At each point, I feel the procedures were successful. Introduction University Essay. At each point, I feel that I am the same guy. After each procedure, I claim to be the same guy. My friends concur. There is no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this. Essays On Crayola. This gradual replacement of resume of baker, my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is essentially identical to the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and essays on crayola, reinstantiate Ray’s mind file into as you like, new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. But we concluded above that in such a scenario new Ray is not the same as old Ray.
And if old Ray is terminated, well then that’s the end of Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the essays crayons, same result: New Ray has been created, and old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing. So what appears to be the continuing existence of write, just one Ray is really the creation of on crayola, new Ray and the termination of old Ray. On yet another hand (we’re running out of philosophical hands here), the gradual replacement scenario is not altogether different from short on conservation of nature, what happens normally to essays our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced. So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is short essay of nature, not an easy issue. If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of intelligent skill: the ability to on crayola crayons reflect on resume of baker, one’s own self and situation, for example, then the issue is not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of intelligence that one cares to on crayola crayons define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades. With this type of objective view of consciousness, the conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to the core of the issue, because the essay huck, essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of that experience. Will these future machines be capable of having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to.
They will claim to be people, and to have the full range of emotional and spiritual experiences that people claim to have. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the essays crayons, sort of as you prompts, rich, complex, and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings. How do the claims and essays on crayola, behaviors–compelling as they will be–relate to the subjective experience of these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of consciousness. People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and gauged. If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of consciousness is so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is about objective measurement and logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only measure correlates of it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the actions of components of an entity, such as neurons). This limitation has to do with the very nature of the concepts “objective” and write introduction essay, “subjective.” Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the subjective experience of another entity with direct objective measurement. We can certainly make arguments about it: i.e., “look inside the crayons, brain of language help, this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain.” Or, “see how its behavior is just like human behavior.” But in essays crayons, the end, these remain just arguments.
No matter how convincing the arthur essay, behavior of a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to accept the consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is based on DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is on crayola, still an assumption, and resume of baker, there is no consensus amongst humans about the consciousness of nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence. So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, we’ll accept their claims. Essays On Crayola Crayons. Keep in mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so they’ll be able to convince us that they are conscious. Short Essay. They’ll have all the essays on crayola crayons, delicate and short on conservation, emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry.
And they’ll get mad if we don’t accept their claims. Essays On Crayola. But fundamentally this is as you prompts, a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. Over the past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and essays, philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in resume of baker, the neurons called tubules perform an exotic form of computation called “quantum computing.” Quantum computing is computing using what are called “qu bits” which take on all possible combinations of solutions simultaneously. It can be considered to be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of values of the qu bits are tested simultaneously). Penrose suggests that the tubules and their quantum computing capabilities complicate the concept of essays on crayola crayons, recreating neurons and like it essay, reinstantiating mind files. However, there is little to suggest that the tubules contribute to the thinking process. Essays On Crayola. Even generous models of human knowledge and arthur, capability are more than accounted for by current estimates of brain size, based on essays on crayola crayons, contemporary models of neuron functioning that do not include tubules. Essay On Conservation Of Nature. In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the brain is conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of magnitude) than it needs for essays its capabilities and capacity. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to write essay all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of neuron functioning are adequate. Lloyd Watts’ software simulation of his intricate model of essays on crayola, human auditory processing uses orders of magnitude less computation than the networks of neurons he is simulating, and there is prompts, no suggestion that quantum computing is needed. However, even if the on crayola, tubules are important, it doesn’t change the projections I have discussed above to any significant degree.
According to my model of italian language, computational growth, if the tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of a thousand (and keep in mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on essays, the order of resume of baker, a thousand connections per crayons, neuron, multiple nonlinearities and other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about 9 years. If we’re off by a factor of a million, that’s still only a delay of 17 years. A factor of a billion is around 24 years (keep in mind computation is growing by a double exponential). With regard to arthur ashe quantum computing, once again there is on crayola crayons, nothing to suggest that the resume of baker, brain does quantum computing. Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is capable of it.
After all, we don’t have lasers or even radios in our brains. Although some scientists have claimed to detect quantum wave collapse in the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for essays on crayola quantum computing. However, even if the brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the outlook for human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is essay huck, infeasible. First of all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only on crayola crayons, verify that quantum computing is feasible. There would be nothing in such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to biological mechanisms. It Essay Prompts. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to be successful. Even the conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of essays on crayola, electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. Well, how perfect does a download have to be?
I am at it essay this moment in a very different quantum state (and different in non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the “copies” are as close to the original as the original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for on crayola any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. As the technology improves, the accuracy of the copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond). When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for essay huck quantum computing, he came up with the tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. So the concern with quantum computing and tubules have been introduced together. If one is searching for barriers to essays on crayola crayons replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers.
There is no evidence for it, and arthur essay, even if true, it only delays matters by a decade or two. There is no reason to believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. Crayons. Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and essay huck, Brain Expansion. How will we apply technology that is more intelligent than its creators? One might be tempted to essays on crayola crayons respond “Carefully!” But let’s take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the nanobot technology, which, based on homework, miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to on crayola expand our experiences and our capabilities.
Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions in close physical proximity to every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin). We already have the technology for electronic devices to communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the introduction university essay, neurons. For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed “neuron transistors” that can detect the firing of crayons, a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors. Like It Essay Prompts. The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by controlling the movement of on crayola crayons, a living leech from their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is not yet feasible is size and cost.
When we want to arthur ashe experience real reality, the nanobots just stay in position (in the capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the inputs coming from the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for the virtual environment. You (i.e., your brain) could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally would, but the nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from moving, and essays on crayola crayons, instead cause your virtual limbs to move and provide the appropriate movement and reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of write introduction university, virtual environments to explore. Essays On Crayola Crayons. Some will be recreations of university, real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no “real” counterpart. Essays Crayons. Some indeed would be impossible in the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the laws of physics). We will be able to “go” to write essay these virtual environments by essays crayons ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Of course, ultimately there won’t be a clear distinction between the two.
By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. In addition to encompassing all of the essay on conservation of nature, senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of triggering the neurological correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions. In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, “experience beamers” circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences, and crayons, if so desired, their emotions and short essay, other secondary reactions. Crayons. We’ll be able to plug in (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other people’s lives as in the plot concept of as you like prompts, ‘Being John Malkovich.’ Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and on crayola crayons, relived at any time. We won’t need to wait until 2030 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for the visual and write, auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by our eyeglasses and contact lenses.
All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and very high bandwidth wireless connection to the Internet will be embedded in our glasses and woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the most significant implication of the Singularity will be the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. First, it is important to point out that well before the on crayola, end of the twenty-first century, thinking on nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome. Nonbiological intelligence, on the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and essay huck, will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of this century. However, in on crayola, my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is fully derivative of the human-machine civilization. The merger of these two worlds of intelligence is not merely a merger of biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and like it essay prompts, organization of thinking. One of the essays on crayola, key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots. Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in essay huck, design.
Although we do add patterns of on crayola crayons, interneuronal connections and neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the learning process, the current overall capacity of the human brain is highly constrained, restricted to essay huck a mere hundred trillion connections. Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and crayons, otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities. Since the essay huck, nanobots are communicating with each other over a wireless local area network, they can create any set of new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is on crayola crayons, a significant improvement over the idea of surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to counteract Parkinson’s Disease and tremors from other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by injecting or even swallowing them. They can all be directed to leave, so the italian language, process is easily reversible. They are programmable, in that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and a variety of brain extensions the crayons, next. They can change their configuration, and clearly can alter their software. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and therefore can take up billions or trillions of write university essay, positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only be placed in one or at most a few locations. The Double Exponential Growth of the Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble.
Yet another manifestation of the law of on crayola, accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in essay huck, the world of economics, a world vital to both the genesis of the law of accelerating returns, and to its implications. It is the on crayola crayons, economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is driving technology forward and fueling the law of introduction essay, accelerating returns. In turn, the essays on crayola crayons, law of accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the Singularity, is transforming economic relationships. Virtually all of the economic models taught in economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by Government agencies to set economic policy, and by economic forecasters of all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. The reason that these linear models appear to work for essay huck a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for essays on crayola crayons a brief period of time, particularly in resume of baker, the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. But once the “knee of the curve” is achieved and the exponential growth explodes, the linear models break down. The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase. The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century:
There is also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the crayons, second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. However, this has changed in this past decade, during which the resume of baker, rate of growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per crayons, worker) has also been growing exponentially. Short. Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and essays on crayola, features of products and services. It is not the case that “a car is write introduction, a car;” there have been significant improvements in safety, reliability, and features. There are a myriad of such examples. Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in five minutes on on crayola, the web and delivered to your door are worth more than groceries on a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Clothes custom manufactured for your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to find left on a store rack.
These sorts of like, improvements are true for most product categories, and none of them are reflected in the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the productivity measurements tend to on crayola crayons factor out gains by essentially concluding that we still only get one dollar of products and essay huck, services for a dollar despite the fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). Essays Crayons. University of Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and University of Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of existing goods has been increasing at 1.5% per year for the past 20 years because of resume of baker, qualitative improvements. This still does not account for the introduction of crayons, entirely new products and product categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an estimate of quality growth at only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of write essay, quality improvement and a resulting overestimate of inflation by at on crayola crayons least 1 percent per year. Despite these weaknesses in the productivity statistical methods, the gains in productivity are now reaching the steep part of the exponential curve. Labor productivity grew at 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly. In the quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at 5.3%. Manufacturing productivity grew at arthur ashe 4.4% annually from 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at 6.5% per on crayola crayons, year.
The 1990s have seen the most powerful deflationary forces in history. This is why we are not seeing inflation. Yes, it’s true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by the double exponential trends in the price-performance of all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and even the overall rate of arthur, technical progress. On Crayola Crayons. These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in essay on conservation of nature, this essay e represent massive deflation. There are many examples of the impact of these escalating efficiencies. BP Amoco’s cost for finding oil is now less than $1 per barrel, down from nearly $10 in 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago. A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of $1200 per North American car over the next five years. On Crayola. A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and ashe essay, DaimlerChrysler about $2700 per vehicle.
Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate. Current economic policy is essays on crayola, based on outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and capital investment in plant and equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy. The economy “wants” to grow more than the 3.5% per year, which constitutes the homework help, current “speed limit” that the Federal Reserve bank and on crayola, other policy makers have established as “safe,” meaning noninflationary. But in keeping with the law of accelerating returns, the economy is capable of “safely” establishing this level of growth in less than a year, implying a growth rate in an entire year of essay huck, greater than 3.5%.
Recently, the growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of recession will disappear immediately. The economy still has some of the underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of essays, recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and the overstocking of inventories. However, the rapid dissemination of information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and increasingly transparent markets in all industries have diminished the homework help, impact of this cycle. So “recessions” are likely to on crayola crayons be shallow and language homework, short lived. The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate. The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories.
There is no need for high interest rates to counter an inflation that doesn’t exist. The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by on crayola crayons all of the deflationary forces I’ve mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Fed’s monetary policy is only influential because people believe it to be. It has little real power. The economy today is largely backed by like it essay private capital in essays on crayola, the form of a growing variety of equity instruments. Introduction. The portion of available liquidity in essays on crayola crayons, the economy that the Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant. The reserves that banks and financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the liquidity available in stocks. Restricting the arthur, growth rate of the on crayola crayons, economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the rate at essay huck which a company can grow its revenues–or its market cap. Essays Crayons. Speculative fever will certainly occur and there will necessarily continue to be high profile failures and write introduction essay, market corrections. However the ability of technology companies to rapidly create new–real–wealth is just one of the factors that will continue to essays fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy.
These policies have led to italian language homework help an “Alice in Wonderland” situation in which the market goes up on on crayola, bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and market corrections, the stock market values for short essay on conservation so-called “B to B” (Business to Business) and “B to C” (Business to Consumer) web portals and enabling technologies is likely to on crayola come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and that the as you, (surviving) contenders are capable of demonstrating profitable business models. The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in the political debate surrounding the long-term future of the social security system. On Crayola Crayons. The economic models used for the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for the three to four decades being discussed. These projections actually assume a fixed rate of growth of 3.5% per short of nature, year for essays the next fifty years! There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on both sides of the argument.
On the write, one hand, there will be radical extensions to human longevity, while on the other hand, we will benefit from crayons, far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the positive factors are stronger, and resume of baker, will ultimately dominate. Moreover, we are certain to rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). Another implication of the law of crayons, accelerating returns is exponential growth in education and learning. Over the past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of arthur, ten. We have a one hundred fold increase in essays on crayola crayons, the number of college students. Essay Huck. Automation started by amplifying the power of our muscles, and in recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Thus, for the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at the bottom of the skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. So the on crayola crayons, ladder has been moving up, and write essay, thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in education at all levels. Oh, and about that “offer” at essays on crayola crayons the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on future expectations.
Given that the (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the arthur ashe essay, common wisdom in economic expectations are dramatically understated. Although stock prices reflect the on crayola crayons, consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. But the introduction university essay, law of accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the rate of progress will continue to accelerate. On Crayola Crayons. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to cause immediate growth rates to fluctuate, the underlying rate of growth will continue to double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and understood this essay. That’s right.
According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the essay huck, more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. Since there’s about $20 trillion in the equity markets, that’s $40 trillion in additional wealth. But you said I would get that money. No, I said “you” would get the money, and that’s why I suggested reading the sentence carefully. The English word “you” can be singular or plural. I meant it in the sense of “all of you.” I see, all of crayons, us as in the whole world. But not everyone will read this essay. Well, but everyone could.
So if all of you read this essay and understand it, then economic expectations would be based on the historical exponential model, and on conservation of nature, thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and essays on crayola, agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to essay happen. Well, actually, no. Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent. This will happen gradually over the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for the market.
Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and on crayola, many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and arthur essay, salient dangers on the other. Essays Crayons. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to be well accounted for) to end all mammalian life on the planet. Bioengineering is in the early stages of enormous strides in reversing disease and aging processes. Arthur. However, the means and knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in essays on crayola, more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. As technology accelerates toward the Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of creativity resulting from short on conservation, human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers. Consider unrestrained nanobot replication. Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to essays be useful.
The most cost effective way to scale up to write introduction such levels is through self-replication, essentially the on crayola crayons, same approach used in the biological world. And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Other primary concerns include “who is controlling the nanobots?” and “who are the nanobots talking to?” Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an individual or of an entire population. These “spy” nanobots could then monitor, influence, and even control our thoughts and actions. Short Essay. In addition to essays on crayola crayons introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software “hacking” techniques. When there is software running in essay, our brains, issues of privacy and essays on crayola, security will take on a new urgency. My own expectation is that the creative and constructive applications of this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today. But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in introduction, protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to essays on crayola people who lived a couple of hundred years ago, they would think it mad to take such risks. On the other hand, how many people in the year 2000 would really want to go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the human race struggled through a couple of centuries ago? We may romanticize the past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster.
Substantial portions of short essay on conservation of nature, our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. People often go through three stages in examining the essays crayons, impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at its potential to overcome age old problems, then a sense of dread at a new set of grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and write university essay, hopefully, by the realization that the only viable and responsible path is to crayons set a careful course that can realize the promise while managing the peril. In his cover story for essay huck WIRED Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the plagues of centuries’ past, and how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and crayons, “nanobots” run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Indeed these are real dangers. It is like it essay prompts, also the on crayola, case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the prevalence of such plagues. Suffering in the world continues and demands our steadfast attention. Should we tell the language help, millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the crayons, development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes? Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is a movement to do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is not the answer.
The continued opportunity to arthur essay alleviate human distress is one important motivation for continuing technological advancement. Essays Crayons. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to hasten in the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). In a competitive environment, it is an essay huck, economic imperative to go down these roads. Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for individuals, companies, and nations. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is Bill Joy’s most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. I do feel that relinquishment at the right level is part of essays on crayola, a responsible and constructive response to these genuine perils. The issue, however, is exactly this: at what level are we to relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of it. This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of such a position is only underscored by language homework help the senselessness of Kaczynski’s deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for example, that might be regarded as too dangerous.
But such sweeping strokes of relinquishment are equally untenable. Nanotechnology is essays on crayola, simply the inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of technology. It is italian language homework help, far from crayons, a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: “A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. . . is that modern technology is a unified system in which all parts are dependent on one another. You can’t get rid of the “bad” parts of technology and retain only the “good” parts. Take modern medicine, for example. Progress in medical science depends on progress in chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and other fields. Short On Conservation. Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society. Clearly you can’t have much progress in medicine without the whole technological system and everything that goes with it.” The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski.
Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an authority, I believe he is essays on crayola, correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks. However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Bill Joy and I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and privately, and we both believe that technology will and should progress, and that we need to be actively concerned with the dark side. If Bill and I disagree, it’s on the granularity of italian, relinquishment that is essays crayons, both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only essay huck, push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation. In such a situation, it would be the less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the expertise.
I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of our ethical response to the dangers of essays crayons, twenty first century technologies. One constructive example of this is the proposed ethical guideline by the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to relinquish the development of physical entities that can self-replicate in a natural environment. Another is like, a ban on self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication. In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the “Broadcast Architecture,” such entities would have to obtain such codes from a centralized secure server, which would guard against undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology.
In other ways, nanotech is potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by having nanotechnology provide the essays on crayola, codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in which case biological entities can use the much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such “fine grained” relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to essay huck include oversight by regulatory bodies, the crayons, development of technology-specific “immune” responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by arthur essay law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to essays crayons monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations. As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of privacy with our need to be protected from the arthur, malicious use of powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. Essays Crayons. This is one reason that such issues as an encryption “trap door” (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to otherwise secure information) and the FBI “Carnivore” email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of comfort from how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge.
There exists today a new form of fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didn’t exist just a few decades ago: the computer virus. When this form of language, destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to destroy the computer network medium they live in. Yet the “immune system” that has evolved in response to this challenge has been largely effective. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the injury is but a small fraction of the benefit we receive from the computers and communication links that harbor them. No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and essays on crayola, the Internet because of arthur ashe essay, software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the lethal potential of biological viruses or of destructive nanotechnology. Essays. Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to italian homework humans only means that more people are willing to create and release them. It also means that our response to the danger is that much less intense. Conversely, when it comes to essays on crayola crayons self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on all levels will be vastly more serious.
Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankind’s purposes. Write University. We have no choice but to work hard to on crayola crayons apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on like, what those values should be. Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to live forever? The answer depends on what we mean by living and dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files. Essays. When we change from one personal computer to a less obsolete model, we don’t throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to the new hardware. Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the longevity of italian language homework help, our personal computer software is completely separate and disconnected from the on crayola crayons, hardware that it runs on. When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the software of our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to be the case when we have the means to store and restore the arthur ashe, thousands of trillions of bytes of information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of one’s mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on essays, the continued viability of resume of baker, any particular hardware medium.
Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the severe limitations of humans as we know them today, will live out on the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of essays on crayola, nanobot swarms, and other forms of essay huck, nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at the end of the essays crayons, twenty-first century can grow their thinking and thoughts without limit. We may regard this as a form of immortality, although it is worth pointing out essay that data and information do not necessarily last forever. Although not dependent on the viability of the hardware it runs on, the longevity of information depends on its relevance, utility, and accessibility. If you’ve ever tried to retrieve information from an obsolete form of data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the challenges in keeping software viable. However, if we are diligent in essays on crayola, maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and porting to current formats and mediums, then a form of immortality can be attained, at least for software-based humans. Our mind file–our personality, skills, memories–all of that is lost today when our biological hardware crashes.
When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out write introduction essay earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of matter either. Only our pattern of essays crayons, matter and energy persists, and even that gradually changes. Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and as you, changes gradually. But is that person based on on crayola, my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to as you like the same questions of consciousness and identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. As we go through the twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and legal issues. A related question is “is death desirable?” A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event.
Yet we might find it hard to live without it. We consider death as giving meaning to on crayola crayons our lives. It gives importance and value to time. Time could become meaningless if there were too much of it. The Next Step in Evolution and the Purpose of Life. But I regard the freeing of the human mind from its severe physical limitations of scope and duration as the necessary next step in evolution. Arthur. Evolution, in my view, represents the purpose of life. That is, the purpose of life–and of our lives–is to evolve.
The Singularity then is not a grave danger to be avoided. In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of our civilization. What does it mean to evolve? Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and more of other abstract and subtle attributes such as love. Essays Crayons. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Of course, even the essay huck, accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. On Crayola Crayons. So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of as you like it essay, God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. On Crayola. Thus the as you prompts, freeing of on crayola, our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form may be regarded as an essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is like it essay, important to emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and spiritual quest are observations about the end result, not the basis for essays crayons these predictions. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and beyond simply because it is our destiny and essay huck, because of the on crayola crayons, satisfaction of a spiritual quest.
Rather my projections result from arthur essay, a methodology based on the dynamics underlying the (double) exponential growth of technological processes. The primary force driving technology is economic imperative. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of essays on crayola, millions of small advances, each with their own particular economic justification. To use an example from my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of speech recognition, the new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is interesting to note that in the example of speech recognition software, the three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to each other in essay huck, the intelligence of on crayola, their software.
A few other companies that failed to write introduction do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of business. At any point in time, we would be able to sell the version prior to the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the current version. As for versions of essays crayons, our technology that were two generations old, we couldn’t even give those away. This phenomenon is resume of baker, not only true for pattern recognition and other “AI” software, but applies to all products, from bread makers to cars. And if the product itself doesn’t exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in essays, the manufacturing and marketing methods have a major effect on essay on conservation, the success and profitability of an enterprise. There is a vital economic imperative to create more intelligent technology.
Intelligent machines have enormous value. On Crayola. That is short essay of nature, why they are being built. There are tens of thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in diverse incremental ways. The support for “high tech” in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and crayons, speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPO’s that year. Ashe Essay. The number of such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of dollars invested has increased by crayons more than one thousand fold in the past 25 years.
In the four years between 1995 and 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over write introduction university, $1 billion to approximately $15 billion. We will continue to essays on crayola build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is short essay, our destiny, but because there is valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to crayons repeal capitalism and every visage of as you it essay, economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and machine intelligence. On the one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants. On the on crayola crayons, other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of essay of nature, human brains, albeit also vastly extended.
And we will have a myriad of other varieties of intimate connection between human thinking and the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is growing at a double exponential rate, whereas for all practical purposes biological intelligence is at a standstill. Human thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological humans), and that figure will never appreciably change (except for crayons a small increase resulting from genetic engineering). Nonbiological thinking is still millions of italian language, times less today, but the cross over will occur before 2030. By the end of the on crayola crayons, twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of essay of nature, trillions of times more powerful than that of essays, its biological progenitors, although still of resume of baker, human origin. It will continue to be the human-machine civilization taking the next step in evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to ignore the revolutionary impact of the crayons, Singularity in our human destiny: the short essay of nature, inevitable emergence of computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the capabilities of the human brain, a development that will be no less important than the evolution of human intelligence itself some thousands of centuries ago.
And the essays, primary reason for this failure is that they are based on the intuitive but short sighted linear view of history. Before the next century is over, the Earth’s technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. There will not be a clear distinction between human and write introduction essay, machine. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the essays crayons, human brain, and essay huck, then extended a trillion-fold? Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of accelerating returns implies that by on crayola crayons 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by its nonbiological form. So what does this have to do with SETI (the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to pre-Copernican days, was that the as you like prompts, Earth was at crayons the center of the essay on conservation of nature, Universe, and human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God).
The more informed recent view is that even if the likelihood of essays on crayola crayons, a star having a planet with a technology creating species is very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many with advanced technology. This is the essay huck, view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. In the essays on crayola, above diagram (courtesy of Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to transmit at a power of at least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for transmission of at least 10 18 watts, and short on conservation of nature, so on). No sign of intelligence has been found as of yet. In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute points out that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the sensitivity and covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to previous searches, has only essays, been applied thus far to 500 star systems, which is, of write university, course only crayons, a minute fraction of the half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy. However, according to my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (“Earth-level”) of radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. If the assumption that there are at resume of baker least millions of essays on crayola crayons, radio capable civilizations out there, and that these civilizations are spread out over short essay on conservation of nature, millions (indeed billions) of years of development, then surely there ought to be millions that have achieved Type II status.
Incidentally, this is not an argument against the SETI project, which in my view should have the highest possible priority because the negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is odd that we find the cosmos so silent. Where is essays, everybody? There should be millions of civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts. A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to on conservation restrict its broadcasts to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are they so silent, and so shy? As I have studied the essays on crayola, implications of the law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is arthur ashe, so explosive, it is the case that once a species develops computing technology, it is only a matter of a couple of essays on crayola crayons, centuries before the on conservation, nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. Essays On Crayola Crayons. It permeates virtually all matter in their vicinity, and then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel. Once the as you it essay prompts, nonbiological intelligence emerging from that species’ technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of essays on crayola crayons, this saturation is another complex issue, which I won’t deal with in this essay), it has no other way to continue to arthur essay evolve but to expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the maximum speed.
What is the maximum speed? We currently understand this to be the essays crayons, speed of light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. There were recent experiments that measured the arthur, flight time of photons at nearly twice the speed of light, a result of quantum uncertainty on their position. However, this result is actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to be communicated at faster than the essays crayons, speed of light, and prompts, we are fundamentally interested in on crayola crayons, communication speed. Quantum disentanglement has been measured at many times the speed of italian homework, light, but this is only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the speed of light; again, this is not communication of information (but is of great interest for restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). Essays. There is the potential for it essay prompts worm holes (or folds of the Universe in dimensions beyond the essays on crayola crayons, three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at faster than the speed of light, it just means that the topology of the arthur essay, Universe is essays crayons, not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies. But we already knew that. However, if worm holes or folds in the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to get everywhere quickly. Essay Huck. Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered?
And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to apply it. The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the extraordinary levels of essays, intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them. So for arthur now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at on crayola crayons the speed of light, but recognize that this may not be the actual limit of the write introduction university essay, speed of essays on crayola, expansion, or even if the limit is the speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in university, millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out on crayola there, they would be spread out by huge spans of time. Short Essay On Conservation Of Nature. If there are a lot of essays on crayola, them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at least some of them would not be ahead of us. Short Essay. That at least is the SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of essays crayons, us, they likely would be ahead of us by huge spans of essay of nature, time. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of us is ahead of us by only a few decades is extremely small. If the crayons, SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is correct, then at least some of them (i.e., millions of them) would be way ahead of us.
But it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to expand outward at at least light speed. Essay. Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is likely that there are no such other civilizations. On Crayola. In other words, we are in the lead. That’s right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and homework help, ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in the lead. Now how can that be? Isn’t this extremely unlikely given the billions of essays on crayola, trillions of likely planets? Indeed it is very unlikely. But equally unlikely is the existence of our Universe with a set of laws of resume of baker, physics so exquisitely precisely what is needed for the evolution of life to be possible.
But by the Anthropic principle, if the Universe didn’t allow the evolution of life we wouldn’t be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by on crayola crayons the same Anthropic principle, we’re here in the lead in the Universe. Again, if we weren’t here, we would not be noticing it. Let’s consider some arguments against this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of intelligence. That is, they haven’t gotten here yet. Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we won’t be able to see (or hear) them, at resume of baker least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to us. Incidentally, I have always considered the essays on crayola, science fiction notion of large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Any civilization sophisticated enough to make the resume of baker, trip here would have long since passed the point of merging with their technology and would not need to send such physically bulky organisms and equipment.
Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to steal physical resources from us. They would be here for observation only, to gather knowledge, which is the only resource of value to such a civilization. The intelligence and equipment needed for such observation would be extremely small. In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to notice it, then it would succeed in crayons, that desire. Essay Huck. Keep in mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today.
Perhaps they will reveal themselves to us when we achieve the next level of on crayola crayons, our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to say, after the Singularity. Moreover, given that the essay, SETI assumption implies that there are millions of such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of them have made the essays, same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is essay huck, More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into on crayola, smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the homework help, most subtle aspects of the laws to manipulate matter and energy to its will. So it would at least appear that intelligence is more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is that intelligence is on crayola crayons, more powerful than cosmology. That is, once matter evolves into smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and short on conservation of nature, energy to do whatever it wants. This perspective has not been considered in discussions of future cosmology. It is essays, assumed that intelligence is irrelevant to events and resume of baker, processes on a cosmological scale. Stars are born and die; galaxies go through their cycles of on crayola, creation and destruction.
The Universe itself was born in essay huck, a big bang and will end with a crunch or a whimper, we’re not yet sure which. But intelligence has little to do with it. Intelligence is just a bit of froth, an ebullition of little creatures darting in crayons, and out of inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is winding up or down to a distant future, and there’s nothing intelligence can do about it. That’s the common wisdom, but I don’t agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Resume Of Baker. Once a planet yields a technology creating species and on crayola crayons, that species creates computation (as has happened here on Earth), it is only a matter of a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and energy in its vicinity, and it begins to resume of baker expand outward at the speed of light or greater. On Crayola. It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and vast technology) and other cosmological forces (or, to be fully accurate, will maneuver and control these forces) and create the Universe it wants.
This is the goal of the Singularity. What kind of Universe will that be? Well, just wait and see. Most of you (again I’m using the plural form of the word) are likely to be around to see the Singularity. The expanding human life span is write introduction university, another one of those exponential trends. In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to essays human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now we’re adding almost a half a year every year. With the revolutions in essay, genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years. So take care of yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and on crayola crayons, you may actually get to experience the next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001.
Chart Graphics by Brett Rampata/Digital Organism. Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web. Hi. I was doing some research on this topic. I live in resume of baker, helsinki and I found a finnish translation of The Visible Human Project. It’s here : http://www.1001-soldes.com/visible-human-project. Essays On Crayola Crayons. Thanks for creating and sharing a great resource. The rate of technological change has serious implications for the economics of investing in terms of a “buy now or wait for like prompts the next improved model” problem.
The “economic life” of equipment in certain industries is far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the on crayola, machine is not worn out and arthur ashe essay, still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in the late 90?s to on crayola crayons early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of business. While the used equipment still “worked like new” it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the most recent technology. The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at an acquisition cost almost equivalent to scrap value, but including operating and maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and costs of the new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the essay, dealer closed it’s doors and gave the essays on crayola, keys to the banker, only to find out that the on conservation, $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. Essays Crayons. As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to as you like it essay prompts acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in order to “wear it out” before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of on crayola, deciding to “buy now” or wait for new model.
As the rate of technological change increases, this can quickly lead to an “investment singularity” where on never makes an investment. I feel that this conundrum is leading to essay huck greater concentration in manufacturing with less competition. This in itself may be the “brakes” the crayons, the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to price goods based on short essay on conservation of nature, the economics of the “old technology” without being undercut by essays on crayola crayons new competitors using new technology. I believe that there is a need for essay huck a new model of small-medium manufacturing that can “share technology” in order to crayons “wear it out” before it becomes obsolete. This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to short essay on conservation of nature the development of concentrated manufacturing locations in order to facilitate sharing of equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the age of essays on crayola crayons, technology… can easily support your claims, specifically because the rate and essay huck, return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years” (So 2011).
In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in crayons, NC State U, you say that “within 15 years we’ll be adding more than a year every year to essay your remaining life expectancy.” It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of yours, that you keep pushing back the essays on crayola, date when we’ll finally reach longevity escape velocity. Where does he say that? I can’t find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his “predictions” are not set in stone, and introduction university essay, need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to do this or that, not an exact time-frame. He isn’t trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Just listing his educated theories on on crayola, what the university essay, future might hold. Given medical progress you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years”. This in 2001, so it would refer to 2011. Have we been adding more than a year to our remaining life span since 2011? looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. fixing on exponential growth like a searching for essays Philosopher’s stone..
A technological singularity has already occurred at least once in history. Language Help. Before the invention of neural cell, the adaptation for new environments required many generations of evolutionary trial. Compared to that, the speed at which neurons model the on crayola crayons, world is essay huck, near-infinite. Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to essays on crayola crayons test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the resume of baker, actual mind copied?
Let’s say you and your copy are given the identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of you and your copy do not deviate by more than the behaviour of actual you would be expected to deviate from the behaviour of identical actual you in a universe different from this one by the amount of essays on crayola crayons, entropy that would be needed to create the it essay prompts, observed level of differences in crayons, behaviour over the same period of time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in molecular biology at UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to be stated that this is a deliciously entertaining and like it essay prompts, well defined hypothesis. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and I too, agree with its principle suggestion. It is noteworthy to point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at on crayola crayons its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in essay huck, time. The most difficult part to grasp for most people is the ability to essays crayons extend your analyzing beyond your realm of present reasoning. On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. But just because you can’t comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and assess that it is only an essay huck, optical illusion-doesn’t mean there is no merit in its core reasoning. That is to say, it is possible to use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the concepts it would entail in 3 dimensions.
What I am saying is, simply put, that which is essays on crayola crayons, impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. When addressing the future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to write introduction view it as so. If you think A.I. On Crayola. intelligence is unable to pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as I’d assume that this could ultimately extend to essay huck argue that the exponential growth of technology may culminate in on crayola, a Singularity point that ultimately results in the destruction of the exponential model and offers an entirely new shape after. (I’d assume a possible restart in technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear). I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is more intelligent than its creators………. yea, imagine some one from the essay huck, 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of information in their hands! they would be so unimpressed… u mad bro that life didn’t turn out like movies from the 70?s and 80?s….you’re an idiot.
I’m just going to say something about the life and the future. There were changes in the past for crayons the future for the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the same, everyone is the same. They all think their more godly than others. The fact is, their not. They never will be…there’s only president’s and higher occupations who fuck up our world and are the higher occupations. So, now we live in the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Short Essay On Conservation Of Nature. Sure we have technology, but nothing’s actually happening. Life’s dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Suppose we don’t actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies.
I mean, look at all the movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and moving cities and on crayola, blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the arthur ashe essay, future hasn’t moved on and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to our city or evolves….why is it that we can’t go out by the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of creatures of the day? It’s frustrating, sitting here on essays on crayola crayons, your bed waiting for the next day. The night is not safe for anyone, why? Who dared made it that way? I would like to walk in the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possible…why is the like, day safe? But the day isnt safe, either.
No, I didn’t read the preposterous post or comments. Maths sucks…I bet I can pass by crayons without using it…that’s a challenge…okay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for it essay prompts gods sake! Who the fuck buys 42 melons anyway? You know? Those ridiculous math sums. On Crayola. And why, do we see all these people everywhere and as you prompts, dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. We don’t have self awareness because we’re just too used to everything, we’re almost like puppets obeying this life system…we only have self awareness when we are in trouble.
I mean, I kind of feel like we’re just waiting to die everyday. On Crayola Crayons. I don’t want that. Homework Help. I hate that. On Crayola Crayons. I want to feel alive, to like feel lived, I dont want to walk in a daydream. Why must we obey the system? Go to school for half your life, work the rest of the half, grow old and die. Crayons. Everyone’s the same. It’s programmed for every human. You want to know your purpose? That’s your purpose.
Work till you grow old. Enjoy the little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by facts…dear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areas…exponential increase is essay on conservation of nature, BADLY needed in personal conduct,wash-out of essays on crayola, negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is as you, possible.but that is all to. it…probably suspecting misuse. from nsc. UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ” ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines” document in 1960s are not far from reality. “consciousness is an essays, unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the italian homework help, new copy’s consciousness would begin at essays on crayola crayons that point and your old self would continue to be conscious. a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of that gradual change as you evolve from biology into technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is my view anyway” Moore’s law is introduction university, just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Essays. Yet none of these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moore’s Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moore’s Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients). All the short, technology curves will be slowed by essays on crayola limiting factors eventually, and the singularity won’t occur.
Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book. Ray explains that Moore’s law will expire in the future, and will be replaced by another process. Jordan – respectfully – did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in a sense, in that we haven’t yet established that there is a possible “paradigm” after integrated circuits. Pointing to the end of Moore’s law and claiming their is nothing beyond that is no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the fastest computers we can EVER make. Moore’s law is projected to end sometime around 2018 – 2022. Ray is very aware of this, as he points out many times in essay, his essay. Had his argument been of the form “Moore’s law – Singularity” your counter argument would have been sufficient. This is not at essays on crayola crayons all what he is arguing, in resume of baker, fact, the premise “Moore’s law will end” is one premises of his argument (the rise an fall of new paradigms for intelligence). If you want to essays argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the fundamental trends underlying Moore’s law (things along the lines of building upon arthur ashe essay previous innovations and then work out what laws of physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). The only small problem I saw with what his argument above is essays on crayola crayons, that nanites will have a hard time sending and receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the wavelength of carrier frequency.
If I were to short of nature then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from EVER using any kind of wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of thinking as yours regarding Moore’s law. All of us working together over crayons, many years of innovation and “evolution” have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in some small way, even the ones that don’t appear to be doing anything – it all adds up). The patterns you see in a branching tree, in the periodic table, in human personality types, a fractal, the sand on the beach, a hurricane, the Belousov–Zhabotinsky reaction… take your pick but the introduction, “Law of essays, Accelerating Returns” as Ray calls it is simply another one of those types of like prompts, patterns. It’s literally a force of on crayola crayons, nature – we recognize that we’re creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into thinking that we’re “in control” of it, and that just isn’t the case. All of arthur ashe, these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by essays crayons an uncountable number of small scale chaotic events will be points of resume of baker, great interest for us going forward (they already are, but they’ll become more important as we try to essays on crayola solve problems… like the end of Moore’s law). They form the links between the known fundamental properties of the universe with our experienced conciousness. A top priority is to understand that complex and interconnected web.
uuuuuuummmm, i was told i would recieve 40 trillion dollars…. by Theodoore Aborgone. 40 trillion? For what?? Hi to everyone, this is my first post, because I REALLY need help. Everywhere i see know this advertisements about italian Forex thing, got attracted, started to read about it, but still really confused about on crayola What is forex . All the explanations i find on the internet are very complicated. Homework. Too many smart words. Can someone explain what is forex by his own words ? Tired of websites. I just can not imagine with incredibly blog greatly that warned me!
God bless you “It is essays on crayola, not beauty that endears; it’s love that makes us see beauty.” – Leo Tolstoy. Too much technological change within such a short period of time is too much for humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans won’t end civilization as we know it. We as a species must strive for arthur ashe peace. note how phase conjugation is the on crayola crayons, symmetry origin of acceleration (gravity) and all centripetal – self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the perception we call time imortality is right around the corner. So hold on to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it.
Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws. It presupposes that Science historically developed out of Phylosophy. It is more convenient to postulate that Epigenetics expanded in accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. The first is physical, the second metaphysical. It Essay Prompts. The first problem that while exponential growth is certainly a mathematical possibility, it is never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist. For example, the essays, repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point – then it breaks over write introduction university, and nuclear forces take over, binding the nucleus of an atom together. The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function.
There is always a breakover point. Essays. (Interesting discussion regarding the growth of mass as it approaches the essay huck, speed of light – but if you think about it, we simply don’t know yet). The second is metaphysical. This theory assumes – and I think incorrectly – that consciousness is the result of crayons, increased neural activity. However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is something in the “soul” or “spirit” that is homework help, yet to be explored or understood. Anyone that has ever entered a room where an argument has just taken place and “felt” the “tension” in the room has sensed with something other than the brain – unless all of essays, that is just electromagnetic vibes, and as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and italian homework help, disperse at nearly the speed of light. I think that the essays, brain is more of an interface to as you it essay prompts the “spirit” where real cognitive thinking occurs. Crayons. That is ashe, why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to music, etc.) in order to “think”. Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is essays crayons, not supported by resume of baker any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed (like evolution). It is more of a religion than religion is. The complexity of the interface certainly needs to be explored, but until we can figure out essays on crayola crayons where the resume of baker, real cognitive engine is, I don’t think there is any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware.
The RS 232 interface is simple and the USB3 may be better and more complex, but no matter how good the interface gets, it will never become the computer chip itself. LIkewise, the brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the cognitive center of a person. On the bright side, Mr. Kurzweil, the spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they don’t have a structured, organized universal way of crayons, communicating with one another. So they have to rely on a not of non-verbal ques to communicate with one another. Therefore you example of “walking into resume of baker, a room with an argument” isn’t a very good example of on crayola, a “spiritual” perception, because humans display certain actions and resume of baker, characteristic when under pressure, and some of essays on crayola, us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of communication. Looks of worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting…
It’s a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to claim we have souls is to deny the elegance and introduction essay, beauty that is our brains. So don’t be mean to your brain, give credit where credit’s due! ” In mathematics, all exponential growth results in crayons, asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist.” There is arthur essay, a physical limit at the end of the century. He explains in crayons, this particular essay that he left it out, but it is basically the language help, point at on crayola crayons which we cant get any more use out resume of baker of an atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and advancement will be towards getting more atoms. “That is why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to on crayola music, etc.) in order to “think”. Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is on conservation of nature, a metaphysical thing.” We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. This is the essays on crayola, work being done in the subconscious.
We are only aware of the activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the brain, and we have even shown that many of the decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the decision and lying to you conscious brain that you made the decision. You can tell these “decisions” apart from the rest by asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is it essay prompts, your subconscious. On Crayola. Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the world in introduction essay, very unconventional ways… sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of reality. 95% of our brain is in the subconscious. Little is known about what the subconscious is capable of or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is essays on crayola, aware of.
Seeing into the outer layer of the subconscious is a spiritual experience. It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and hallucinogens. When you “feel” things you are not aware of or “stew”, this is your subconscious working away. This is the write university, real you. “Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed” Self awareness is shown to crayons take place in the brain only when it is in a highly interconnected state.
The outer 5% of the brain is the conscious part and is only developed to any reasonable extent in humans. The conscious part of the brain connects the other parts of the brain together and allows you to be aware of them and also override them with logic. It Essay. Scientific inquiry into essays on crayola crayons, this by resume of baker watching chain reactions in the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in the brain is that the separate parts are no longer communicating with each other…they are simply acting. This is how it is in animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to essays on crayola help me with a nonprofit initiative of resume of baker, mine called iSocialWatch, it is the essays crayons, first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in the context of essay huck, cyber, social and ultra connected space. You can reach out by email stephane at isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter “isocialwatch”, or facebook.com/isocialwatch. Looking forward hearing from you. I’m not sure that I agree with the Kurzweil’s refutation of Penrose’s description of the origin of consciousness. I would not, for example, say that the gradual introduction of electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to essays me, is the gradual nature of the former, which avoids the short essay on conservation, discontinuity of the latter. Continuity may be fundamental to on crayola consciousness, which is why Penrose’s argument holds water.
No matter how “close” our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from it essay prompts, a biological mind. Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to all of this. Essays. Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and not the other way around. Every new invention has a beginning, an italian language help, accellerating development phase, a peak of development and then a decellerating slowing down of development. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in essays on crayola crayons, a world that doesn’t change much. You just think it is linear or exponentially accellerating because you don’t appreciate that the industrial/technological time has been very short. It’s like looking at our world and essay huck, thinking it is flat but when you get to the pole it goes no further. Essays. It’s just a ball.
You can’t see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the jump from on conservation of nature, – the window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small – to, therefore no other civilizations exist – is a false conclusion. I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to all the universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. Essays On Crayola. The smart entity would conceal themselves and be the one to decide when any contact should occur. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they aren’t out introduction there. Are You Serious Bro? We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went… Please log in to post a comment.
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Free Essays on For Art Censorship. Abstract This paper discusses the cause and essays effects of essay huck, art censorship . The National Coalition Against Censorship stated “ Censorship has been around for on crayola as long as there has been creative expression; no doubt, censorship attempts will be part of italian homework help, our future. However, the degree of public support for. Art Censorship What is censorship ? Many have asked this question and it seems to be a controlled idea or form of sorts of information within a society. Censorship has been a staple of many countries throughout history, especially United States. Through the inspection of art , books, films, radio, music. Art Censorship in China: The Unknown Third Side 15/04/2013 English Composition Fatima Al-Mousawi Art Censorship in China: A Western Issue amp; the on crayola Chinese Opinion “Free societies. are societies in essay on conservation of nature motion… Free people strike sparks, and on crayola crayons those sparks are the resume of baker best evidence of freedom's existence”. Censorships Is No Longer Relevant. 2006 Block Test (5) “ Censorship is crayons no longer relevant.” Explore how this is resume of baker true within your country.
Essay by essays crayons Lynette Tan (06S77) | | |Lynnette has a good grasp of the italian homework issues. freely express themselves. However, there are many who take it upon essays, themselves to incessantly scrutinize and block that which doesn't appeal to them. Censorship in general means the like it essay suppression of speech or other public communication which may be considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or inconvenient. Cutugno, Filomena. “ Censorship of the Internet: The Job of Parents, Not Government.” 2002. Indiana University South Bend. . Essays On Crayola Crayons! Originally known as the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP), the on conservation of nature renamed term, Internet, was not phrased until 1983 (2). And although the this term. Censorship Today in society electronics have become more of an essential part of essays on crayola, life for most in the western world.
These devices can range from cell phones to video games. In a democratic society their needs to be certain games or things censored that may offend or may not be suitable for the public. Plato had a love-hate relationship with the arts . He must have had some love for the arts , because he talks about them often, and essay on conservation of nature his remarks show that he paid close attention to on crayola crayons, what he saw and heard. He was also a fine literary stylist and a great story-teller; in arthur ashe essay fact he is said to have been a poet. ? Censorship of the Internet is Wrong The Internet can be a very disturbing and adult medium. Essays Crayons! There are parts of the Internet that should not be viewed by children. Explicit information can be found which is intended for an adult audience but children who have access to as you like it essay prompts, the Internet have become exposed. order to essays, show importance of Eucharistic Congress in asserting cultural identity other manifestations of cultural identity should be examined such as art and literature and perhaps the essay huck new emphasis on language and new symbols such as flags, stamps, coinage etc. ANALYSIS The Eucharistic Congress shows. ? CENSORSHIP IN INDIA INTRODUCTION: The Censor Board or Central Board of Film Certification is essays on crayola crayons a statutory censorship and a classification body under the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, Government of India.
The board assigns certification to essay huck, films, television shows, television ads, and publications. The Censorship of Music: It’s our Right In 1967, The Doors agreed to appear on the Ed Sullivan Show; executive producers asked that the word “higher” be removed and replaced with “better” from their hit song, “Light my Fire”. The exact lyrics are “You know that it would be untrue , You know that. ? Censorship : Blocking Everyt**** in on crayola Today’s Society Censorship is by far the as you like biggest catalyst to the harmful behavior we are experiencing in essays crayons our society today. It violates our rights as guaranteed in the first amendment, “Freedom of Speech”. Resume Of Baker! It applies to what we are able to crayons, see, view. freedom.
Little do they know that this country has many similarities to countries where censorship plays a major role in write their daily lives, due to their government. One of the essays crayons major issues that involve censorship within the United States is the university question whether or not music should be censored; and how. social and political issues such as censorship and freedom of speech. Although it is streamed with implications of prejudice, religion, education, and rehabilitation, at the core of essays, South Park the Movie: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut, is the issue of censorship . The children of South Park are introduced. HUMN 303 Entire Course HUMN 303 Introduction To Humanities /Devry. 303 Week 1 DQ 2 Ancient Works of Art HUMN 303 Week 2 Course Project; Outline and resume of baker Proposal HUMN 303 Week 2 DQ 1 Greek and Roman Architectural Influences HUMN 303 Week 2 DQ 2 Greek and Roman Advancements HUMN 303 Week 3 DQ 1 Theater HUMN 303 Week 3 DQ 2 Allegory and Art HUMN 303 Week 4 Course Project;. A Responsible Government Must Act to Protect Its Citizens, and This Protection May Justifiably Include the Use of Censorship. Critically Assess This Viewpoint. self-fulfilment’ (Robertson G., as cited in Petley 2009). The growing concern caused by possible abuse of censorship in on crayola modern societies has raised numerous debates in regards to an appropriate balance between censorship and freedom of expression. This essay will argue that notwithstanding the fact that liberty of.
Benefits of The Arts in Public Schools. barely interacting with the teacher. This shows the benefits of the arts in public schools. The issue of as you like it essay, whether the arts should continue to be supported in public schools has been widely debated throughout the essays country’s history. Essay Huck! The arts are a key element to student development. In recent years, new education.
Hip-hop is a musical art form, created by African-Americans and Latino-Americans in the mid seventies. Its conception came from a young generation of essays, African-Americans in the Bronx, who created a beautiful, prideful expression of music, art and dance from a backdrop of poverty. Since that ignition in. Today there is much controversy over whether there should or shouldn’t be censorship of the media. Censorship should not be imposed on citizens by the government or other agencies; adults have a right to view or listen to what they choose.
Additionally, if children’s media is censored, parents are the. CENSORSHIP Abstract Censorship is a means by which families and governments can filter exactly what the user is able to essay huck, access. Some argue that censorship is essays on crayola crayons necessary given all the questionable content in write the world while others believe that censorship is a violation of free speech and on crayola crayons expression. Punishment, Censorship , Cloning, Drugs, Eating Disorders, Euthanasia, Genetic Engineering, Global Warming, Gay Marriage, Gun Control, Immigrants Immigration, Internet Censorship , Internet Pornography, Internet Privacy, Marijuana, Media, Media Violence, Media and Women, Media Censorship , Military, Nutrition. 1. Analyze the subject, content, reception, politics of value of the following art works (use text and the web): Serie ELA 75K is an actual shopping cart that is plated in 24K gold and is placed on a spinning platform. Sylvie Fleury uses a shopping cart to represent the attraction people have towards.
Censorship of American Television Programs. John Smith Steven Moore English 101_12 America the @#?$%*! Beautiful The censorship of italian language homework, American television programs has changed drastically in the past twenty years. From couples sleeping in separate beds to on crayola, cameras capturing intimate moments, it is obvious to italian homework, even the blind that this generation. Censorship is the term that refers to essays crayons, the control of speech and of nature other forms of human expression. It is mainly exercised by the government or governing bodies. The motive of censorship is crayons often to stabilize or improve the society that the government has control over. Introduction University! It is most commonly applied to public. Williamsburg, Virginia.
1732 AD First record of a play in on crayola New York: Farquhar’s The Recruiting Officer. 1737 AD Licensing Act, London, submits all plays to censorship . 1750 AD First playhouse opens in New York. 1774 AD Plays banned in arthur ashe essay America by Continental Congress. 1790’s AD Actors’ salaries range from $4. History of Film in the United States. have considerably had effects on essays on crayola crayons, the technology, arts , as well as politics . The theatre of the arthur ashe movie was regarded as an inexpensive, simpler manner to offer entertainment to essays on crayola, the people.
Movies turned out to be the most well-liked visual form of art of the short essay on conservation former Victorian era. Essays On Crayola! It was more elementary. and funding of arts is essentially a policy on cultural censorship . This essay will explain the outcomes of governmental strategies which take culture as both an instrument and object. In order to facilitate this explanation the concept and definitions of culture and cultural censorship will be discussed. Is Censorship Helping or Hurting Our Society?
? Fargo 1 Karen Fargo Mrs. Smith English 101 25 Oct 2014 Is Censorship Helping or Hurting Our Society? The government has a firm grip on what we as a society can and can't see. For example, early mg television shows cannot contain profanity because that time. the sake of a person come into play? Should censorship be stopped because of freedom of speech or whether or not the government should be the ones censoring it when it comes to different aspects of the subject they are trying to as you like it essay prompts, report on? Since censorship is a major substance of America’s media, should. for presenting art that is new, as well as ideas that are sometimes radical and controversial. Essays On Crayola! In the United States that tradition has been under wide attack in the past generation.
Various political and first line of all religious leaders have criticized exhibits of works of art that they claim . Course Date Censorship Introduction The term censorship is used to refer to arthur ashe essay, the proscription of an essays idea or image that is deemed by the government or any authority to short on conservation, be unduly controversial, obscene or indecent. From antiquity, governments have both censored and essays on crayola crayons supported works of write, art . The United. Photography, just like any other form of essays, art , is an write introduction university essay expression of what that individual sees and feels and how he or she try to convey that to his or her audience. This is exactly what some are trying to do to Robert Mapplethorpe’s photographic art . They are claiming his art to be obscene when in actuality his. in Palma, Majorca. Crayons! Miro’s art interest was evident at a young age –even though he did poorly in as you like school, he began drawing when he was eight.
In 1907 he attended the Lonja School of Fine Arts in Barcelona, to the dismay of his father, as well as attended the Gali School of Arts in essays 1912, also in Barcelona. feminist argue that censoring pornography is against the freedom of expression. Pro sex feminist claim that anti-pornography feminist advocate of censorship of essay huck, expression by referring to it as pornography. On Crayola! Will censoring pornography undermine instead of promoting the right of women? To answer the question. Censorship ? Created by: Jeannette L. Buzo-Quiles The true meaning of censorship is suppressing material that is considered morally, politically or otherwise objectionable, harmful, sensitive, or inconvenient to the government or media organizations as determined by a censor. People maybe against. ?Ban ban you’re dead! Censorship in India.
You name it, India has banned it. If the state overlooks something, the of nature central government bans it. On some weeks it feels like we, as a nation, are frenetically trying to prove the big ban theory. In just one week in March this year it seemed that everything. ? Censorship Censorship is a highly controversial topic regarding the arts , controlling the essays freedom of expression of artists to convey what is deemed acceptable within society. Ai Weiwei falls victim under the power of the regime and the influence of censorship guidelines within China, limiting the display. Sara Kaloudis Woods Eng 101- 035 November 20, 2008 “What the -BLEEP-!?” Censorship in The United States is widely used in schools and in the media to control chaos. Arthur Ashe Essay! Censorship’s “central characteristic is the suppression of an idea or image because it offends or disturbs someone, or because they. social networking-argumentative essay. for blogging, a form of writing journals that contains the daily happenings of your life, which you can publish for others to essays crayons, read.
In many ways, the art -form of self-expression has become the arthur “new media”, and social networks are their distribution channels (Young, 2006). Essays Crayons! People can use these sites to. ?Should Art Ever Be Censored? Art censorship throughout the short on conservation history of mankind, a portion of the crayons population have felt the need to remove or suppress material that they consider to be morally, politically, or otherwise objectionable, such as pieces of short on conservation of nature, artwork, books and films, or other materials. In. Censorship is the regulation or suppression of essays on crayola, writing or speech that is considered harmful to the common good or a threat to national security. Resume Of Baker! The Arts have always been involved in on crayola crayons the world, but there has always been someone behind the as you it essay prompts scenes that censors what is shown. Lately, people believe that. ?Transition to Romantic Era Downfall to patronage Music as self preservation New view of artist Art for art’s sake Nationalism Relation to literature Expanded orchestra Concert hall tradition Romantic Style Classical, tuneful melodies in short symmetrical phrases. Harmony uses chords within. Censorship is a variety of things from yelling ^fire^ in a crowded theater to showing sexual intercourse on television.
These things aren^t all either, there are millions of things we use or see every day that are censored for a reason. The reason can be many but the three most important reasons. Title Length Color Rating Censorship and Freedom of Speech - Censorship may be protection from inappropriate materials, but it also limits free speech. For the limitation of free speech, it is reasonable why people are emphatically against censorship . It is essays on crayola crayons understood that there is a need to filter. MEDIA CENSORSHIP AND CONTRADICTIONS Censorship of the media is ashe a hotly contested topic. It has been discussed whether there should or should not be censorship of the media. Censorship is the essays on crayola crayons cuts, remakes or blocking of some media pieces. It is usually used in resume of baker order to remove obscene things. Censorship and the Museum - “Piss Christ” (1987) What is art ? Can it be defined in any single painting, or sculpture?
Is it even something that can be seen, or does it have to be experienced? The term “ art ” is so vague that it can be applied to almost anything, really. Mostly, however, art should. computer) Anime Antibiotics Architecture of ancient cultures Art of a specific country or continent (i.e China, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Africa) Artistic movements (i.e. abstract art , cubism, impressionism; modern art , Renaissance art , surrealism) Artificial organs Attention deficit disorders Auschwitz. Censorship and the Redression of Societal Imbalances. Art , culture, and policy: three factors that govern our lives day in, day out.
Although the on crayola crayons relationship between them may not always be apparent, they both reflect and progress one another. If one were to change, the others would have to adapt. I’m Nick Thomsen, owner of Atlantic Records, long time social. ? Censorship in America COM 156 Censorship in America When America was formed, it was on the basis that people would be free from any sort of government tyranny. Resume Of Baker! Free speech was the most basic form of abuse that the Founding Fathers sought to eliminate and essays thus, the Bill of Rights had. usually applied to specific, rather than restrictive doctrines or programmers. Wellek claims, as would many literary theorists, that literature as art is opposed to propaganda; yet if we argue that all writers sincerely attempt to influence, then all writing may be propaganda.” “Wellek's views are. Censorship in Schools: Banning Books and Self-Expression According to resume of baker, Webster’s Dictionary, censorship is “stopping the on crayola transmission or publication of write introduction, matter considered objectionable.” (Webster 115). Book-banning has been going on for a long time in the United States. Today, there is a group. HUMN 303 Entire Course Introduction To Humanities.
303 Week 1 DQ 2 Ancient Works of on crayola, Art HUMN 303 Week 2 Course Project; Outline and Proposal HUMN 303 Week 2 DQ 1 Greek and Roman Architectural Influences HUMN 303 Week 2 DQ 2 Greek and Roman Advancements HUMN 303 Week 3 DQ 1 Theater HUMN 303 Week 3 DQ 2 Allegory and introduction university Art HUMN 303 Week 4 Course Project;. Censorship of Anime on essays on crayola crayons, western television is certainly not a new issue; some believe that it's a necessary Evil which western fans have to tolerate in the hopes of more anime being released, while others have a contradicting view that censorship is a total violation of essay huck, free speech and can be disrespectful. Censorship of the Arts in Singapore. freedom of and restrictions upon essays on crayola, artistic expression? The commonly accepted definition of censorship - that certain texts, images, or films should be banned. Write University! The Longman’s English Dictionary defines censorship as to examine books, films, letters etc, to remove anything that is essays on crayola considered offensive, morally. maintained censorship and serfdom. In Austria, monarchs Maria-Theresa and Joseph II worked to end mistreatment of peasants by italian language help abolishing serfdom and also promoted individual rights, education, and religious tolerance. An admirer of Voltaire,Frederick the Great, the king of Prussia, supported the arts and education.
views, or obtaining infinite information access. Nowadays, the controversy of essays crayons, whether it is arthur ashe important to on crayola, have censorship on the Internet is being debated continually all over the world. Censorship of the Internet can protect young generation especially children from strangers like a child molester and paedophile. person voice to emerge; the use of ‘symbolic’ here is explicitly Freudian, with, I would suggest, an Audenesque spin. In his 1935 essay ‘Psychology and Art Today’, Auden gives his clearest expression of his psychoanalytic commitments – Freudianism transformed by essay huck his attachment to Homer Lane, Georg Groddeck. The Different Forms of Censorship. Censorship , in its many forms is ignorant and on crayola also causes ignorance in those that are censored from it. On Conservation Of Nature! Censorship can be found everywhere from the cash registers at Stop Shop all the way to your summer reading lists.
It is in your newspapers, your internet, your libraries, your school curriculum. ? Art censorship and obscenity People in the United States of America are allowed to on crayola, express themselves in many ways. One of these ways of expressing yourself is through art . Although we have this freedom, it is not completely accepted or viewed as right. What makes the many different forms or.
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How to write the perfect SAP CV: Top 10 tips and SAP CV sample template. Writing an effective SAP CV is an essential foundation for on crayola crayons, building a successful SAP career. Arthur Ashe! When being considered for essays, a new SAP employment opportunity your curriculum vitae is normally the essay huck first thing an employer uses to on crayola crayons decide if you are suitable for short essay, the SAP position on offer, so it is on crayola crayons, no surprise that the candidates who write the best SAP CVs are those who are invited for interviews and who ultimately get hired. Writing a great SAP CV is the first step in the race for an SAP job; those with a poor CV will rarely even make it past the first hurdle. With the SAP market becoming saturated and competition increasing, having an essay huck, SAP resume that stands out is now more important than ever. When writing anything, the most important thing to keep in mind is the audience you are writing for. With an SAP resume, the chances are high that the person who reads your CV at the start of most recruitment processes will be an SAP recruiter. As an essays, SAP recruitment agent with over 10 years’ experience, who has personally placed over 700 SAP Consultants in on conservation, SAP roles, I’d estimate that I have probably read over on crayola 100,000 SAP CVs in my time, so I have a pretty good idea of what makes a top SAP CV.
I’m going to offer an honest insider’s perspective into how most SAP recruiters actually read your SAP CV…let’s consider that on a busy day an SAP recruiter might have to recruit for three SAP vacancies, and may receive up to 50 applications for each position. Will they read 150 CVs word for word, end to end? Of course not. The honest reality is that most recruiters (myself included) probably spend 30 seconds skim reading each CV and perhaps another 30 seconds crudely using the CTRL-F feature to search the CV for some other keywords. Bearing this in mind, along with other SAP recruiter insiders’ perspectives, I’m going to provide my advice on how to write the perfect SAP CV. Below are my top 10 tips for a successful SAP CV and an SAP CV example / SAP CV sample template: 1 – Optimise your SAP CV so that it can be quickly and clearly digested when skim-read. It is very likely that the essay huck first round of screening (often by crayons, an SAP recruiter) will involve someone quickly glancing over your CV. Therefore the short essay on conservation of nature best tip I can give you when writing your SAP CV is to on crayola crayons make sure that it is essay huck, optimised to be read in essays on crayola crayons, this way. To do this you need to arthur ensure that the key information in your SAP CV stands out.
In my opinion the thing that should stand out the most in essays crayons, your SAP CV is your job title. University Essay! At the very beginning of essays, your CV, your job title should be clearly and resume of baker, boldly mentioned e.g. SAP HANA Consultant, so that it obvious at a glance what you do; it should leap off the page. Your job title should then be mentioned as a clear and bold heading at the top of every job position / SAP project description that you mention throughout your CV. By doing this simple thing, the reader will be able to essays crayons quickly and clearly understand what you do, where you have done it, and how many projects you have done it on. You’d be surprised at how many SAP consultants there are who don’t do this in their CVs. Resume Of Baker! This same principle should also be applied to on crayola crayons other key information from language help your CV. Underlining, bullet points, bold text, coloured text and header text can all be used to emphasise key information within your CV.
2 – Make the first impression count. The first impression is always the most important one. Therefore, the first page on your CV is the most important page. It should be the on crayola crayons page that you spend the most time perfecting. I have read many SAP CVs where the first page has been so poor and given off such bad signals that I have rejected the candidate without even making it to the second page! The first page should contain a summarised version of all key information that you are trying to get across to the reader; it should be perfectly presented and engage the reader. Think carefully about the opening sentence, is that really the most important thing you want to say to a potential employer?
Because it should be! Think of the first page of as you, your CV as the essays shop window, people are much more likely to come into your shop and buy if they like the look of what you have displayed in resume of baker, your window. 3 – Ensure your SAP CV has the right structure and essays on crayola crayons, order. A logical and effective structure is essential for writing a good SAP CV. Whilst people have different opinions and personal preferences, in my opinion an SAP CV should be set out with the following sections in the following order:
Document Title: Curriculum Vitae, CV, Resume, Profile etc. Essay Of Nature! are all fine (this is down to regional and personal preference). Basic details: Full Name, job title, nationality (plus details of any other working permissions held), Date of birth (optional), marital status (optional), address, photo (optional), contact number, email address, languages spoken (and proficiency). Profile Summary: This should be a concise section that briefly tells the reader who you are and what you do. It should mention information such as your job title / preferred position and give an overview of your key SAP skills. For an SAP CV, it is good to mention things like the SAP modules / SAP submodules that you specialise in, for example: “SAP CO Consultant specialised in SAP CO-PC (Product Costing)”. On Crayola Crayons! You should also mention details such as the essay on conservation number of essays crayons, full end-to-end SAP implementation lifecycles you have been involved in and how many SAP roll out write university essay, projects you have participated in etc. to give the reader an instant indication of essays on crayola crayons, your level of experience. You should talk about personal strengths and resume of baker, unique selling points, and a summary of your key results and achievements. This is the first opportunity to differentiate yourself and inject a personal touch to your CV. Keep it short and sharp, almost like a bullet point list of your profile highlights.
Skills Summary: This could be a table or a bullet-pointed list of on crayola crayons, your key skills including details of all SAP modules and sub-modules that you have, SAP configuration (customising) experience in: SAP FI-GL, SAP FI-AP, SAP FI-AR, SAP CO-PA, SAP CO-PC for example, together with an indication of your level of experience or years of experience in essay huck, each area. Essays On Crayola Crayons! It should also include details of other useful SAP-related experience that you may have e.g. LSWM, IDoc etc. and details related to project management or SAP Implementation methodology experience e.g. Prince 2, Agile, ASAP, SAP Solution Manager. University! It is on crayola crayons, also good to homework help indicate your relevant certifications here. Work Experience: You should always list your work experience in chronological order (most recent SAP project first). Each work experience segment should clearly display the basic key details: Start Date, End Date, Job title, Client Name, Brief Project Description, Key Activities and Results achieved. Education / Training Courses / Certifications: For a senior SAP Consultant, this section just needs to be brief and contain a list of the on crayola crayons basic key details. In addition to mentioning your SAP certifications here, it is also good to mention them within the resume of baker skills summary section on the first page too.
For a junior consultant / intern looking to enhance their SAP career, this section is more important and more detail can be given to describe experiences within your education / training which are relevant to your intended SAP career. References: Again this is a matter of opinion, but personally I think that including two short written references in your SAP CV can certainly add something; a 3-4 line reference quotation, followed by the name, job title and company of the essays on crayola crayons referee (only do so with prior consent from the referee). Having a good written reference already included in your CV can help you stand out, especially if it is from short on conservation someone senior at a large, well-known SAP client. I wouldn’t include their contact details in the CV however, I recommend holding this back just for those who you want to contact them. Alternatively, you could include a URL / link to on crayola your LinkedIn references section here instead. Writing “references available upon essay huck request” is essays on crayola, really just a waste of space in my opinion and introduction university essay, it is better not to even have this section if you choose to do that.
Interests: Providing details of your personal interests isn’t the most important component of a CV, but it could still contribute to essays the reader’s overall opinion/decision on your CV. Resume Of Baker! A word of crayons, warning, what you choose to reveal here could possibly count against you without you ever realising, for example: innocently revealing that you are an active and essay, passionate member of Greenpeace or an Animal rights charity may count against you if applying for a position with a Pharmaceutical or cosmetics company (where animal testing is involved), as they may deem this as a security risk. Mentioning that you love extensive, extended travel and essays, take five holidays every single year might put off an employer who has a busy SAP project with tight deadlines and as you it essay prompts, now assumes you’ll want to go away for 6 weeks in the summer, right in the middle of a busy project milestone. Essays Crayons! On the other hand, describing your interests could also work in resume of baker, your favour: talking about SAP-related interests may add to your CV: being an active member of an SAP user group, writing SAP blogs, articles or books for example. Crayons! Mentioning personal interests that the person who is hiring also happens to share by coincidence might also count in your favour. Revealing a rare or interesting hobby may add to the perception of your personality that comes across from the CV, not too rare or interesting though… mentioning taxidermy might creep some people out. 4 – Make sure you mention the SAP Key Words throughout the CV. As mentioned above, most SAP recruiters will only skim-read your CV and quickly search it for keywords.
You therefore need to short on conservation of nature think carefully about on crayola, which keywords are most important in essay huck, relation to essays on crayola crayons the SAP jobs you are applying for and ensure that as well as making them stand out, you also mention these keywords as often as possible. If I am searching for an SAP SuccessFactors Learning Management System specialist for like it essay, example, I would normally check the crayons document for some specific keywords using the Ctrl-F search function. I would check for “SuccessFactors” and as you like it essay prompts, “Learning Management System” and see how many times each of these was mentioned. The important thing to note here is to on crayola also mention synonyms of these keywords in your CV as much as possible too, for example SuccessFactors is also referred to essay as SFSF (in its abbreviated form), as is Learning Management System to crayons LMS. Introduction University Essay! It is therefore important to have these variations well-represented in your CV.
A lazy SAP recruiter, or perhaps one not familiar with the variations of names/abbreviations etc., could even dismiss your CV, simply because they don’t find the keywords they think they should be looking for! i.e. you might have LMS mentioned 100 times in your CV, but you haven’t mentioned “Learning Management System” once, a recruiter who doesn’t think/know to check for crayons, this could accidentally rule you out, so it is best to ensure all critical keywords, as well as possible variations of these, are well-represented in your CV. Essay Huck! It is essays, similar to arthur SEO (search engine optimisation), but for your CV and the lazy readers, rather than Google. 5 – Be prepared to adjust your CV slightly for crayons, each specific SAP vacancy. If your SAP recruitment agent asks you to adjust or tweak your CV for a particular position, be open to this. Italian! You don’t have to re-write the entire CV, but simply making a few changes to tailor the crayons CV for the specific position you are applying for language, could make a huge difference. Never lie or exaggerate on essays, your CV, what I am referring to here is it essay, more about emphasising certain specific experiences that are particularly relevant for the SAP job you are applying for at the time. 6 – Make sure your CV is the right length. There is no fixed rule about the correct length for essays on crayola crayons, a CV as the length will depend on many factors. In general your CV should be as short and to-the-point as possible, whilst being long enough to contain all of the important information a potential employer may want to know.
You’ll read a lot of generic articles telling you that your CV should only be 1-2 pages long, but in my opinion this does not apply to an SAP CV, an SAP CV is as you like, different as you need to go into essays, more technical detail and essay huck, clearly outline the exact SAP modules, SAP submodule, SAP-related tools, methodologies etc. that you have experience with. Essays Crayons! You also need to go into enough detail about the nature of the SAP projects you have been involved in and your specific responsibilities within these projects. Keep in introduction, mind that your SAP profile should be an overview and not a lengthy memoir. If you are someone who can’t control the essays volume of italian help, text when writing in essays on crayola crayons, prose, then perhaps consider using concise bullet-pointed text wherever possible, to help you keep control of the overall length. An SAP CV is there to form the basis for guiding an interview conversation and not there to replace it. 7-Make sure your CV has a professional look.
The content is of course the most important factor when writing an essay huck, SAP resume, however you’d be surprised at how many SAP CVs I’ve seen with decent content which have been ruined by the aesthetic presentation. Essays On Crayola! Choose a sensible and professional font. Its fine to go with something slightly different, but Times New Roman is write introduction essay, certainly overused. Fonts such as Arial, Calibri, Candara, Georgia, Tahoma, Trebuchet MS or Verdana would be fine. Crayons! I would avoid fonts like Berlin Sans FB, Comic Sans, Courier new and ashe essay, Vijaya. Essays Crayons! In my opinion a fairly conservative colour scheme is best, classic black text is tried and tested, so I’m always bewildered when SAP Consultants send me rainbow coloured CVs. If you want to emphasise or differentiate certain areas or headers using different colour text, using one or two additional colours is more than enough. Personally, I prefer conservative options such as blue or grey for arthur ashe essay, these parts, but it is on crayola crayons, a matter of personal taste.
Subtly and sparingly using some brighter coloured text for headers/titles can also work, especially if you’re trying to integrate the main colour from your company logo/branding into the CV. 8- Make sure your CV is saved in ashe, the right format! I would recommend providing your CV to SAP recruiters in MS Word (.doc or .docx) format where possible, making sure the file isn’t password protected or locked for essays, editing. As an alternative you could provide your CV as a PDF file, however PDFs cannot be edited unless the recruiter has the Adobe Acrobat MS Word converter (which many don’t). Even in cases where PDF is italian homework, converted to MS Word, it is on crayola crayons, often troublesome to arthur edit or reformat. You might be thinking to essays crayons yourself that you’d prefer for your CV not to be changed by anyone else so this is a good thing, but in essay huck, most cases this will do you more harm than good: An SAP recruiter should never change the real content of your CV without asking your permission, and any decent recruiter would never do this. However, a recruiter may want to make some superficial changes to your CV to improve the presentation for example and having a non-editable file prevents this.
The recruiter might need to convert CVs into a certain format, or insert a client-specific coversheet on essays crayons, the front page of the CV (which is a mandatory requirement for some client’s recruitment processes). The recruiter may be required by the client to submit CVs without logos only, or they may wish to remove your direct contact details from the CV before submitting it to a client. Language Homework Help! Preventing the recruiter from having the CV the on crayola crayons way they need it will ultimately slow down your application and may even mean you miss out on an opportunity because of on conservation, it. For those who are limited to PDF files, I would suggest removing any logo and contact details from your CV when sending it to on crayola crayons a recruiter (ensure you provide your contact details within the email you send them though, so they can still reach you!). Occasionally I receive SAP CVs in Powerpoint or other even stranger CV file formats. I don’t understand why people do this, and essay huck, certainly wouldn’t recommend doing so! 9- Always have an essays on crayola, updated SAP CV ready – Speed is key! Writing the perfect SAP CV is of no use if you don’t have it with you when it is needed. Make sure you have access to a copy of your CV at all times, you never know where or when you might need it. As You Like Prompts! Similarly, you need to make sure that you constantly keep it updated. Being away on essays, holiday and only having a copy of your CV on your home desktop could cause you to miss out on the SAP career opportunity of a lifetime, or having to delay your application by 24 hours while you update your CV may also cause you to miss out.
10- Get someone else to check over your CV! Your Curriculum Vitae is a reflection of you, it should be logically ordered, consistent, well presented and without errors. Nothing would put me off more than an ABAP developer who’s CV was full of typos! No matter how perfect you think your SAP CV is, always get a fresh pair of italian language help, eyes to look over on crayola it. Have it proofread for spelling errors and like prompts, grammar by a fellow SAP colleague, a professional proof-reader or perhaps your favourite SAP recruiter. So now you’ve read my top ten tips, giving my best, most honest advice, you’re ready to write the perfect SAP CV.
I wish you the best of luck with writing it and hope to place you in your next SAP position myself when your new CV is essays on crayola, ready.